Research On Wind Power Output Forecast Considering Uncertainty

Wind farm output forecast is the premise of wind power stable operation and the security dispatching of the grid including wind power. Wind speed forecast is base of the wind power output forecast.As the wind has some characteristics,such as random frequent changing and uncertainty,etc.the wind speed in the nature is difficult to predict.This paper analyzed the genesis and the law of the motion based on the basic characteristics of the wind in the nature.And the change characteristics of wind were discussed considering environmental factors,the Chinese wind resource distribution was also analyzed; which focused on the north area north east area and north west area of China wind resource distribution as well as the influence of the wind resources changed in major environmental factors. This paper also studied the movement properties of the continuous large area wind caused by major environment factors in these areas.The wind speed spatial correlation was researched when it passes through different locations based on the continuous large area wind motion properties,and in order to short-term wind speed forecasting.spatial correlation of wind speed forecast model was established according to the wind speed spatial correlation. Application of two wind farms’wind towers’wind speed recording of70meters altitude in Inner Mongolia east as the original data, verified the rationality of the combination forecasting model by the example.The nature of the wind speed change properties were analyzed in depth, against in traditional wind speed method the wind speed forecasting result for a single point,this paper put forward wind speed forecasting result processing method that extended the wind speed forecasting results from single point to the forecasting result section.Application of chance theory to the wind speed forecasting result values the nature of the analysis, proposed the evaluation method of wind speed forecasting result values--chance vector method;inhanced wind speed forecasting result information content, maked short-term wind speed forecasting results have more reference value.This paper also analyzed the relationship between wind speed and wind turbine power output-wind turbine power performance according to the structure of wind turbine generator. And the study that the law that wind turbine output power changing with wind speed was also studied.researched wind farm power output forecast based on the wind speed forecast according to the wind turbine power peformance,formula derivation and power poformance curve of wind turbines.