Research On The Strategies Of The Urban Clean Air Action Of Jinan

With Jinan city as research carrier,author collected and integrated data about economy, energy, environment from2001to2010, analyzed the relationship between the three by environment Kuznets curve; Author also created two types of combination forecasting models also were esbtalished which based on gray forecast model, elastic coefficient method and LEAP model, and forecasted the energy demand of Jinan in2011-2020, determined the optimal prediction model at last Retrospecting the carbon emissions and carbon sinks from2005to2010in Jinan City, and with which as the basic point, making the low-carbon roadmap of Jinan City from2011to2020gradually according to the national"12th Five" carbon dioxide emission reduction targets and the actual situation of Jinan City.Main contents and conclusions as follows:(1)The EKC and the analysisding of its extended form of Jinan City shows that Jinan City has spent the early stage of the KEC in which the quality of the air environment deteriorating with the rapid development of economic.(2)By calculate the standard deviation, the anthor compars the predicted results of five energy forecast models-gray forecast model,elastic coefficient method,LEAP model, combination forecasting model1,combination forecasting model2.The result shows that:LEAP model has the maxium standard deviation, combination forecasting model2has the minimum standard deviation, so the author selects combination forecasting model2as the energy demand forecasts method of Jinan City from2011to2020.(3)Forecast results shows that the energy demand is59.62-63.43,48.36-51.87,41.90-45.12million tons of coal respectively in energy saving, low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon scenarios by2015,the energy demand is94.30-100.33、 61.94-66.43、47.55-51.20million tons of coal respectively in energy saving, low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon scenarios by2020.(4)Calculated, the aggregated carbon dioxide emissions of Jinan City in2005approximately are90.97million tons,with the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP49.3thousand tons per100million Yuan, the energy consumption per10thousand Yuan of GDP1.28tons standard coal;As the total carbon dioxide emissions of Jinan City in2010, are about106.11million tons, with the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP27.1thousand tons per100million Yuan, the energy consumption per10thousand Yuan of GDP1.00tons standard coal.(5)According to the national carbon dioxide emissions reduction targets, unified the Jinan carbon emissions present situation and the"12th Five"plan, the Jinan low-carbon developing route is formulated,which divides into two the stages:the main low-carbon measures of the first stage in2011-2015years include increasing the non-carbon energy proportion,and the wooded area to enlarge the carbon to collect the quantity; reducing the fossil energy used proportion, enhancing the efficiency of the production, the transmission and the utilization;bringing down the carbon dioxide missions in the manufactured products production process;Strengthening the energy conservation measure and so on.In the second stage of2016-2020years,on the basis of keeping on deepening the first stage low-carbon measures and consolidating the low-carbon achievement of the first stage, it is to explore and advance gradually the green intelligence city net construction that will make the system integration with the deliverability, the energy supply, the energy storage, the energy usage and the energy conservation technology, when the urbanized community with industrial function is realized step by step.(6)Low-carbon roadmap shows that:The energy consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP in Jinan City will be lowered to0.75tons of standard coal in2015which will be25%lower than2010.Total carbon dioxide emissions reach188.76million tons and per unit GDP carbon dioxide emissions lowered to22,500tons per hundred million which will be17%lower in2015than2010.The energy consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP in Jinan City will be lowered to0.56tons of standard coal in2020which will be44%lower than in2010.Total carbon dioxide emissions reach to382.60million tons and per unit GDP carbon dioxide emissions lowered to22.000 tons per hundred million which will be35%lower in2020than in2005,the proportion of clean energy will reach20%of the total energy consumption.The research findings of this thesis have very vital practical significance and application value on adjusting energy consumption structure, changing the model of economic growth, improving the ambient air quality, implementing taking road of the low carbon development, and achieving the sustainable development in Jinan City.