Land Use Simulation And Prediction Of Changchun City Based On The Extended CA Model

The city is a complex system. A variety of human and natural factors play a significantrole in this complex system. With the deepening of reform and opening up, the economic,technology,urbanization, and industrialization have rapidly developed. To grasp the basicstate of resource and its change timely is very important for urban planning and sustainabledevelopmentIn this paper, Changchun City is chosen as the study area. The study attempts to combinethe extended CA model and GIS techniques. Firstly, to solve the defects of traditional CAsimulation method, the Markov model is introduced to the traditional CA model.Based on thetransition matrix of land use and the real situation of land use. The Markov model is used topredict types of land use in total. And the total predictive value is used to control iterationtime of the CA. Then the natural and human factors, which have impacts on land use. TheLogistic regression is used to calculate the cellular fitness, and the concept of life desire isutilized to determine the influence of the neighborhood space. The cellular transitionprobabilities are substitute for the complex transformation rules of CA. Based on the CAmodel and GIS, land use changes of Changchun at macroscopic and microcosmic levels aresimulated and predicted.Results show that land use changes were obvious in Changchun city during past years.From1991to2005, dry land and unused land area were reduced by45038.46hm~2and435.70hm~2. The area of paddy field, forest land, traffic land and construction land increased. Thearea of construction land took the first place, increased by28252.20hm~2. During2005-2015,dry field will decrease from1095818.08hm~2to1088882.55hm~2, with reduction of1.0%.Paddy field will drop from250792.87hm~2to246752.16hm~2and decreased by1.6%. Forestarea will increase3791.15hm~2, traffic land and construction land also will have differentdegree of growth, traffic land may extend by911.91hm~2, with an increase of3.3%, and theconstruction land will increase18589.12hm~2, expected to grow by8.2%. The water andunused land area tend to decrease. Water area will drop453.12hm~2, expected to decrease by0.6%.The unused land will reduce619.68hm~2, with a decrease of2.4%. In the whole changeprocess, the area of dry field will change most, followed by the construction land. Accordingto the present situation and forecast results, in the big trend, dry field, paddy field, and waterarea are gradually diminishing, and the forest land, land for traffic, construction land andunused land area are extending.