Study On Spatial-temporal Pattern Simulation Of Socioeconomic Influence Prediction Under Sea Level Increasing

The influence and prediction of future sea-level rise is a hot issue on global change research. The coastal Delta region, as the hotspot, is influenced by sea-level change, land subsidence and human activity. The sea-level changes have become potential hazards to the survival and development of human beings. This paper studies changes of sea-land surface system and its impacts on economic environment under the background of global change, which helps to make the reference and ideas to response impacts from the sea level rise commonly effected by natural and humanistic factors. However, limited by the complexity of sea level change and economic system evolution process, existing researches on influence assessment of sea level changes is very rare. Moreover, the effective integration of existing sea-level system and social economic system has been overlooked. The studies on assessment and simulation of social economics treated with sea level change, based on GIS technology, not only satisfy the development on sea surface changes, but also provide new ideas and application tools for coastal management, development and decisions making.With the integrating the GIS analysis models and the traditional mathematical models, this paper aims to achieve potential effects’assessment of coastal plain area under the situation of future sea level rise. Firstly, we construct a model sets which can be used to simulate the sea level change progress, analysis the spatial-temporal characteristics and assess the impact of socioeconomic factors destroyed from sea level change. And then, the model integration and coupled operation mechanism are realized, based on multi-source data integration, conversion, relevancy and spatial discretization, which can support the simulate of future potential impact of spatio-temporal patterns of regional relative sea level changes under the background of global sea-level rise and land subsidence. Thirdly, based on the basic platform, ArcGIS Engine, a prototype system used to assess the possible impact of sea level rise and simulate responding spatio-temporal pattern is built. Finally, we get a predict analysis of the socio-economic’s possible situation of Yangtze River Delta considering the sea surface change in2030s.The case study shows that the system can:①imulate the ground elevation changes’ status at different time, and reveal the evolution of sea level and land surface’s relative location at Yangtze River Delta;②how regional socioeconomic potential parts destroyed on different sea level change and give the quantitative relations between sea level rise and socioeconomic representative factors;③isplay the temporal-spatial distribution of socioeconomic factors with the consideration of sea level changes, and investigate the response status and sensitivity grade in different region;④rovide visualization for the entire test process of sea-land surface’s system change and impact assessment.