Risk Assessment Of Potential Sea Level Rise Of Liao River Delta Region Based On GIS

As the major vulnerable zone of sea level rise, Liao River Delta (take the city of panjin as the studying area) is an important industrial development area based on exploitation of the resource of oil and gas and petroleum chemical industry, and is the important coastal wetland, too. Referring to forefathers' research results, this paper tries to use a kind of Geographic method--Geographical Information System (GIS) to risk evaluation of sea level rise hazards and attempts to introduce a kind of new risk evaluation approach of sea level rise hazards based on Area Source Model. When choosing evaluative indexes, we take four aspects of fatalness of sea level rise hazards, vulnerability of land system, socio-economic and ecological vulnerability, and defending ability. We draw the map based on the relief map and the land utilizing map of 1:100000 scale, gain altitude values (range of 1 km × 1 km ) and the fundamental data of evaluation in the studied area using the software of MapInfo and socio-economic statistic data. Submersed land area including different utilizing type by sea water are calculated and the potential economic loss and population affected by the submerged disaster are assessed for no defence,different sea-level rise and high water level. Furthermore, special topic maps of fatalness of sea level rise, vulnerability of land system, socio-economic and ecological vulnerability, and defending ability are produced. The following results are combined with the basic study cell based on Area Source Model following mathematical models of risk evaluation, considered of defence or no defence. Finally, the response strategies that are the choice of defence, wetland protection, flood insurance and coastal zone integrate management plan for sustainable development are point out.