The Study Of Earth-atmosphere Coupling Refined Location Forecast Method Of Heavy Rainfall Of Langfang Area In Hebei Province

Using the data of heavy rainfall of Langfang area、MICAPS、historical weather charts of surface and upper air of the Central Meteorological Observatory from1971to2011, The seismic data of M≥4which occurred in China and surrounding areas and the data of surface temperature、10cm and20cm deep ground temperature、daily average air temperature、daily average water vapor pressure、daily average pressure of Langfang area from1980to2011and the data of satellite and radar from2005to2009, the climatic characteristics、weather systems、earth-atmosphere system and the synoptic meteorology index discrimination forecast method of heavy rainfall and earth-atmosphere coupling refined location forecast method of heavy rainfall of Langfang area are analyzed and studied in detail. The results as follow:The heavy rainfall of Langfang area mainly occurs from April to October and concentrates from June to August, it has four types:single-point heavy rainfall, partial heavy rainfall, regional heavy rainfall and entire region heavy rainfall, single-point heavy rainfall and partial heavy rainfall is one of the outstanding characteristics of heavy rainfall in Langfang area, The days of single-point heavy rainfall, partial heavy rainfall, regional heavy rainfall accounts for97%of all the days of heavy rainfall in Langfang area and the days of single-point heavy rainfall accounts for53.8%of that; The weather system of heavy rainfall of Langfang area mainly has six types:(1)fronts weather system;(2) cyclone weather system;(3)upper vortex weather system;(4)shear line weather system;(5)typhoon weather system;(6)n.w. airstream weather system; Based on the basic physical factors of heavy rainfall occurrence, the synoptic meteorology index discrimination forecast method is built by summing up weather model forecast indexes and the indexes of explaining and applying of numerical forecast products and the critical index of CAPE, K, and SI, etc. the synoptic meteorology index discrimination forecast method of heavy rainfall has higher forecast ability to heavy rainfall of Langfang area; From the point of view of earth-atmosphere coupling, it found that the weather system activity may not just the only reason of the heavy rainfall, the interaction of earth-atmosphere coupling is the important factor to heavy rainfall occurrence. the main earth-atmosphere systems of heavy rainfall are the "beat vortexs" and the "seismic origin vortexs" in Langfang area; It has something referential value to the forecast of heavy rainfall of Langfang area in Hebei Province by analyzing variable information of the ground temperature caused by activity of geothermal vortexs;In the coupling region, the distribution and changing and configuration characteristics of earth-atmosphere elements has important reference value to heavy rainfall refined location forecast, it has very important referential value to the forecast of location of the maximum precipitation of heavy rainfall by calculating and analyzing the distribution chart of "super energy value"; Base on the previous studies of the synoptic meteorology index discrimination forecast method of heavy rainfall, combining the viewpoint of earth-atmosphere coupling, The earth-atmosphere coupling refined location forecast method of heavy rainfall of Langfang area in Hebei Province is built, this forecast method is used in the refined forecast accuracy test of heavy rainfall from2010to2011in Langfang area, the results are good, The accuracy rate of objective judgment of heavy rainfall reaches67%, the forecast accuracy rate of refined location of heavy rainfall reaches29.1%, the results show that the earth-atmosphere coupling refined location forecast method of heavy rainfall of Langfang area has higher accuracy rate compared with the accuracy rate of27.7%of traditional synoptic meteorology judgment of heavy rainfall and the accuracy rate of10.1%of refined location forecast of traditional synoptic meteorology method; The earth-atmosphere coupling refined location forecast method of heavy rainfall of Langfang area is to improve, develop, enrich and perfect the traditional synoptic meteorology forecast method of heavy rainfall of Langfang area and can become a new idea to the refined location forecast of heavy rainfall of Langfang area.