Research On Emergency Task Planning Considering Risk Acceptability

In recent decades, China is undergoing social and economic transition, and it hasbeen suffering from a period which the unexpected public events happen very frequently.These events caused considerable loss to our country in public safety and social economy,which has attracted increasing attention all over the whole society. Nowadays, research onEmergency Management have been acquired plenty of progress. However, a great manybasic science problems urgently need to be solved.Emergency Decision-making is an important basic science problem in EmergencyManagement. This paper studies the typical issue of Emergency Decision--EmergencyTask Planning Problem (ETPP) with constraints of time, sequence and resource. Theexisting decision-making theories and methods are not quite relevant to EmergencyDecision problems, and it also can not satisfy this kind of large, complex problems incomputation efficiency. Thus, this paper proposed a new decision model based on RiskAcceptability, improved from the traditional Markov Decision Processes theory andConstraint Satisfaction Problem. When solving ETPPs, Risk Acceptability is on the onehand considered as representing the risk attitude of the decision maker. And on the otherhand, it helps to eliminate the solutions disliked by the decision maker, thus reduce thestate space of the problem and improve the calculation efficiency.The following experiments will prove that, both in mono-agent and multi-agentproblems, the new decision model is much more efficient in computation, compared withtraditional MDPs and CSP-MDPs, hence it is more appropriate for large complexuncertainty planning problems like ETPPs.Thus, the introduction of Risk Acceptability in Emergency Decision not onlyproposes a new way of representing the risk attitude of decision-makers, but also helps toimprove the computation efficiency of solving ETPPs. The new model supplies a newmethod for large complex Emergency Decision problems.