| Glacier is a product of climate, and its changes can reflect climate variation. Himalaya is the most magnificent mountain range, also one of glaciated areas in middle latitude of the Earth. Many world famous high peaks distribute in this area and make a chill environment, as a result a lot of glaciers developed. Mt. Everest as the highest pole on the earth, glaciers well developed. Under the background of global warming, glacier variation and change prediction in Mt. Everest area has been a hot issue. But glacier monitor is difficult for the complicate terrain and climate environment in this area. As the development of Remote Sense and ArcGIS, study of glacier variation is more convenient. Study in this paper is based on the first glacier inventory data of Nepal and China, Remote Sense images and Digital Elevation Model (DEM), make use of ArcGIS and ENVI software to extract glacier distribution information, and analyze characteristics of glacier distribution and variation. Glacier change predication is made by theory of glacier system model, result of prediction is examined. The main content in this paper is as follows:1. Collection of images and DEM. Modification of some errors in the first glacier inventory of Nepal and China, to enhance the accuracy of glacier variation. The modification aims at mismatch caused by projection system of the first inventory and images in the northern part of Mt. Everest; in the southern part, besides modification of mismatch of projection system, modification of difference in distinguish glacier border is necessary, such as back wall in accumulation of glacier should be contained in the glacier area.2. The recent glacier distribution (2010s) and attributions acquired based on images, DEM with the method of manual interpretation. Compare the old inventory with the new inventory to acquire glacier area variation and number variation. The result shows, in the northern part (50193in China) of Mt. Everest glacier area change-10.04%, glacier number change-12.53%; in the southern part (Dudh Koshi basin and some glaciers of Arun basin) glacier area change-11.36%, glacier number change33.45%. It is apparent that there are some differences in glacier variation of southern part and northern part of Mt. Everest, especially the northern part of Mt. Everest has glacier number increase.3. According to glacier system model, quantity structure, scale structure, elevation structure and orientation structure are analyzed. Parameters used for glacier variation prediction is obtained based on the first glacier inventory data, climate atlas in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and DEM material. After parameters acquired, glacier change prediction is made, and the predicted result is examined by the actual glacier variation obtained in former part2. The result shows in northern part of Mt. Everest, under the scenario of temperatures warming6k per hundred years, glacier area change-10.11%in42years. This predicted result well conform to the former context; in southern part of Mt. Everest, because of there is no exact time for topographical maps; it is hard to say how many years interval between two glacier inventories. As these topographical maps are published in1960s, the initial year is assumed as1960. If under the scenario of temperature warming4k per hundred years, glacier area change-11.76%in50years. This predicted result is well agreed with the former context. According to the examination of prediction result with the actual result, analyses are made aim at how to enhance the prediction accuracy of glacier system model.4. Make use of glacier variation model, predication is made for recent100years. |
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