The Logistics Forceasting And Coordination Analysis In Supply Chain Management

Good supply chain management can improve the core competitiveness ofenterprises; the application of accurate mathematical method can effectivelyimprove the supply chain management. Supply chain management containsmany important. Based on project support, we mainly select two aspects oflogistics forecasting and supply chain coordination analysis to research.About logistics prediction, based on the probability of statistical methodsand artificial intelligence methods, we choose port logistics on the globalsupply chain as the research object. Under the guidance of the TEI@Imethodology, we have published container throughput forecast reports ofglobal top20ports for two consecutive years from2011to2012, and made theerror explanation according to the actual situation. We divide the globalTOP20ports into five categories firstly by the Application of cluster analysismethod, and analyze the development trend and characteristic for each kind ofports. Utilizing the seasonal exponential smoothing method, improved greyprediction method, ARIMA method, and BP neural network prediction methodto fit and forecast container throughput monthly data of Hong Kong port, Shenzhen port and Guangzhou port. At last, we show three ports' the initialpredictive values for the first half year of2012by Combination forecasting.About supply chain coordination, based on game theory and storagetheory method, we do optimization analysis and coordination of theenvironmental friendly closed-loop supply chain. For a two level closed-loopsupply chain consisting of a single manufacturer and a single retail andconsidering recycled product remanufacturing, we assume the market demandis uncertain and dependence on the retail prices. The retailer is responsible forsales and strives to the recycling of waste products. In the paper, theclosed-loop supply chain is coordinated by the rewards and punishmentcontract. We also give the appropriate incentive factor. The results show thatthrough the coordination of the incentive contract, the manufacturer reducesthe wholesale price and retailers increase the order and recovery quantity. Thewhole closed-loop supply chain reaches optimal solution ultimately, andachieves a win-win situation.