The Statistical Research On The Promoter Action Of Regional Science-technological Innovation To Low-carbon Economy

Stating from literature study, and according to the definition of science-technological innovation, and the relationship between science-technological innovation and low-carbon economy, this article specifically analyzes the mechanism of the regional science-technological innovation's promoter action to low-carbon economy. On the basis of this analysis, this article takes 30 provincial regions in 2002-2008 as objects, uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate the levels of regional low-carbon economy, and tests spatial characteristics of regional low-carbon economy, and finally establishes spatial econometric models to analyze the regional science-technological innovation's promoter action to low-carbon economy, and made some policy recommendations. The main contents of this article are as follows.First, integrating more comprehensive views, a new concept of low-carbon economy is defined; and the implication of low-carbon economy is divided into three aspects, economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, environmental protection. Based on this definition, the mechanism of the regional science-technological innovation's promoter action to low-carbon economy is divided into three aspects as well; science-technological innovation boosts economic growth, energy conservation and carbon emissions control, and environmental protection, and then promotes the development of low-carbon economy. The analysis of mechanism lays theoretical foundation to structure models.Second, after data preprocessing, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to evaluate the levels of regional low-carbon economy, and factor analysis is used to abstract two factors, science-technological level factor and science-technological input factor from science-technological innovation. Then the spatial characteristics of regional low-carbon economy in initial stage, last stage, and whole stage are tested through Moran's I statistics and Local Indicators of Spatial Association-LISA, and the results illustrate that regional low-carbon economy has significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity. At last, three types of spatial econometric models are constructed.Third, the empirical analysis is done. The spatial econometric models are utilized respectively in initial stage, last stage, and whole stage, and the models in initial stage are contrasted to models in last stage. The following conclusions from empirical analysis are summarized. First, there are significant spatial autocorrelations for regional low-carbon economy, but these autocorrelations are displayed as the correlations between error terms in adjacent regions. Second, considering that in the process of industrialization the achievement from science-technological innovation will meet with some obstructions, the coefficients of the science-technological level factor in all models are not significant; meanwhile in GWR models some coefficients of the science-technological level factor have negative influence, through coordinating development, individual regions has adjusted the mode of production, and the coefficients of the science-technological level factor become positive, so the comparison between initial stage and last stage shows that in last stage the number of regions which have negative influence is reduced. Third, in SLM and SEM models the coefficients of science-technological input factor in initial stage and whole stage are significant, while in last stage this coefficient is not significant, and the similar conclusions is drawn in GWR model, because of the impact of other factors and the problems that science-technological innovation is facing, the promoter action of regional science-technological input factor to low-carbon economy declines obviously.Finally, aiming at the problems in this article, some policy measures are proposed, such as advancing science-technological levels, shifting the focus of science-technological researches, adjusting science-technology input structure.