A Study Of Risk Early Warning System Based On China Commodity Futures Markets

The main purpose of the paper is trying to establish the Risk Early Warning System for China Futures Exchange. The paper first reviews the internationally often-used methods of Risk Early Warning. Then, it shows the research status quo of Risk Early Warning System in our country. Through the analysis, we found that two main defects did exist. Obviously, with the financial integration, indicators that only selected from our country are far from enough. Secondly, the value of the overall risk of the futures market can be seldom found from many current researches, even if some of the researches give out the value of the overall risk of the futures market, still the researches cannot give risk inspection suggestions through the process of risk early warning .Integrating the characteristics of future market operation, this paper is going to establish a brand-new Risk Early Warning System according to the Market Information link. On one hand, one of the main characteristics of the paper is that when we try to establish the new system, we take the external impact toward internal Futures Market into consideration; on the other hand, the paper take the selected risk factors as a organic system, analyzing the system by using ISM. At last, the paper tries to make a Scientific Recognition of the indicators by using AHP on the base of understanding the relationships between the indicators, and finally establish a Risk Early Warning System of Composite Index.