Empirical Analysis Of Risk-warning Based On Factors Of The Commodity Futures' Price Volatility

In recent years, under the correct leadership of the CPC Central Committee and State Council China's futures market has made steady and rapid development with the "State Council on promoting the capital market reform and stable development of a number of opinions" in-depth implementation.But because of the current China's futures market "emerging and transitional" is characterized by the prominent market system and structure is still not perfect. Preventing and reducing the risk of self regulation mechanism is not fully formed, as a whole China's futures market is still very strong volatility and speculation, so the China's futures market reform and development still present new challenges. At the same time, in opening up new market environment and conditions, as China's futures market continues to grow, domestic and international markets are becoming increasingly close, which affects the operation of the futures market more diverse external factors and complex. Due to the U.S. subprime crisis triggered by the global financial market turmoil, domestic and international commodity market price's frequent fluctuations have increased the difficulty of the futures market risk control, and it has brought new health challenges to the stability of China's futures market.This paper learns more results from the existing home and abroad papers. The characteristics of China's futures development of economic is rapid and risk. From the types of futures market.The author designs China's futures market early warning indicators based on full liberalization of the conditions, which meets the current the healthy development, And makes sure each indicator which determines the impact on the futures market principles. This is very benefit for establishing the safety of our futures in early warning models. According to the corresponding futures early warning model, China's futures market risk managers should implement some measures which avoid the great danger in the future month. From studies at home and abroad we can get that the futures market risk control theory there are two main directions. One is control of the futures which based on financial engineering control theory of price. Another we can study the relationship between macroeconomic and the Futures risk. For China's rapid economic growth, China's futures market also occupies an increasingly important position in the world. How to select indicators to reflect the multiple perspectives of the risks of futures is very important. It is essential to establish an early warning for China's futures market risk.After reading a lot of literatures, how do the futures market risk supervision for China's manger who meet futures in a certain stage of the macroeconomic environment and rapid economic development situations. How design monitoring system through indicators.So that early warning, early treatment, thereby we can reduce the risk of the futures market and made futures market really steady development. Domestic futures market risk warning models are not very professional. Futures market itself is a very risk and complex industry. China's futures market is relatively rather late, the system is not perfect. And there are many market speculators, price-fixing people and many other negative factors in the market, so Chinese commodity futures is risk of commodity. From that perspective, only the analysis of China's commodity futures market itself is not enough from the futures price itself (such as price volatility forecast, the optimal hedge ratio, margin settings, etc.). So the author first review warning models of the risk in the domestic and foreign studies, and then select indicators to build the risk model, and use principal component analysis to find the main factors,At last the author build PVC risk warning model. It is a new regulatory perspective to our future risk model.In the end of this article, the author establishes Logistic regression risk warning model of PVC futures contracts from the comprehensive, multi-angle monitor impacts. First, we select a number of factors which affect our commodity futures price volatility according certain principles and methods, we mainly try to use risk factors of China's commodity futures market to do some preliminary studies about the risk warning model. In this paper, we select 18 factors of our PVC futures contract according to certain principles, then we re-use of principal component analysis method to determine six main components of China's PVC futures market risk factor. It is evidenced that the constructed risk early-warning model has some practical value.