Research On The Supply And Demand Of Shenyang City's Fixed Assets Investment In The Twelfth Five-Year Plan

Since the reform and opening up, Shenyang City's economic still develops rapidly, and economic strength are growing day by day. In the process of economic development, large-scale investment in fixed assets investment in Shenyang City provides a solid support for the rapid economic growth. Now, the world is in the post-financial-crisis period, economic situation remains grim. Facing the pessimistic develop situation, in the twelfth Five-Year Plan period, Shenyang City's economic how to ensure the sustained rapid growth becomes the focus. As an investment-led city, studying the future development of fixed assets investment in the twelfth Five-Year Plan period has a very important practical significance and the guiding role in policy.Based on the supply and demand effects theoretical of fixed assets investment, this paper focuses on the demand and supply situation of Shenyang City's fixed assets investment in the twelfth Five-Year Plan period, and analyses the economic operation of the investment potential that may exist, and studies how to guide this part of the potential capital into fixed assets investment. This paper's structure is as follows:The first part is the introduction. This part mainly introduces the research problem, meaning, status, purpose, content, method, innovation, and defects.The second part analyses the historical situation of Shenyang City's fixed assets investment. This part mainly analyses the case of Shenyang City's fixed assets investment from the three major aspects--overall situation, growth rate volatility and the investment returns. Overall, Shenyang City's fixed assets investment has been the characteristics of expanding, the growth rate decreased, the investment returns decreased.The third part forecasts the demand of Shenyang City's fixed assets investment in the twelfth Five-Year Plan period. After using the ARIMA model to forecast GDP, according the relation between GDP and fixed assets investment, this part forecast the demand of Shenyang City's fixed assets investment in the twelfth Five-Year Plan period, then forecast the demand of Shenyang City's every industry fixed assets investment in the twelfth Five-Year Plan period through using the investment return coefficient.The forth part forecasts the supply of Shenyang City's fixed assets investment in the twelfth Five-Year Plan period. This part uses the ARIMA model to forecast the natural supply capacity of five channels--state budget, domestic loans, foreign investment, self-financing and the other.The fifth part analyses the supply potential of Shenyang City's fixed assets investment in the twelfth Five-Year Plan period. This part mainly explores the five channels potential of finance, domestic loans, foreign investment, self-financing and the other. If Shenyang City can effectively guide and fight, it can be satisfied on all the funds needed for economic development.The sixth part is the policy recommendations about how to fully tap the of funds and to expand the scale of investment of Shenyang City's fixed assets investment in the twelfth Five-Year Plan period.