Options Analysis Of The Coal Terminal Based On Repeated Game Strategy

Because the traditional net present value method in the investment field has many of the defects, option theory has been introduced into the physical area of investment by more and more scholars. And it supply a kind of new ideas and methods for corporate strategic investment decisions. However, the option theory can't solve all the problems in strategic investments, such as monopolistic competition policy and the value of uncertainty analysis.The introduction of options theory and analyze investment strategies will make up for defects of the traditional capital budgeting theory in the analysis of investment strategies. But it ignored the impact of the competitive factors. The option game theory is the one that use game theory to analyze competitive factors and then use option pricing methods to evaluate the investment value of the project ideas on this basis. That is to say, a new option game model is built for the corporate strategic investment decision-making. So that enterprises can assess the value of investment projects more comprehensively and accurately and improve decision-making level.Based on domestic and foreign results about real options theory, game theory and other related theories, combined with China's coal maritime transport market situation and characteristics, a new option game model is built to explore the construction of a coal terminal investment decisions in this paper. And take ShenHua Tianjin Coal Terminal PhaseⅡproject for example in order to explore and research in-depth in this field.This paper combines the binary tree pricing model with game theory based on net present value method. Analyze the limited coal terminal repeated game of coal Terminal from the pricing strategy, and find the best game strategy. According to the results, a pricing model based on repeated game theory can fully take into account the competing relationship between the coal piers. And the theoretical results will be in line with the real ones which means more scientific and reasonable. So it promotes the decision-making methods in construction investment of coal terminals to go further.