Research On Demand Forecast Of Chinese Crane Market And Suggestion

The engineering machinery industry is one of the most important industries in China and also one of the most important guarantees of domestic economic development. Since the beginning of new century, the china engineering machinery market, especially the crane market, has got rapid development, the value of output has breakthrough 20 billion in 2010. Facing to such a large crane market, whether the enterprise can make an accurate forecasting and adjust its own production timely and reasonable or not, decide that whether the enterprise can gain a competitive advantage or not. Therefore, strengthen market forecast is the key factor of the enterprise to improve core competitiveness, and is the great development strategy.Forecast is to make scientific survey and analysis to history and status quo of objective facts, adopt scientific methods and logistic inference, establish corresponding mathematical models or make qualitative analysis to informal information, execute speculation and judgment to development trend and level of objects. Due to complicated and confused objective atmosphere, several kinds of forecasting methods need to be adopted, compared and verified, thus judgment is hereby made to reduce big mistake. Demand forecast is to forecast product demanding quantity and market occupancy within certain phase in the future and provide evidences for decisions regarding enterprise planning and control.Accurate forecast can enhance customer satisfaction, improve enterprise competitiveness; accurate forecast can arrange production effectively, reduce inventory; accurate forecast can improve logistic management, make pricing of high information content and promote decision-making.Based on industry development process, status quo and trend, this paper executes deep analysis on opportunities and challenges of the industry facing to, compare advantages and disadvantages of all types of forecasting methods of market demands combining current economic development trend home and abroad, construct the regression-based forecasting model according to domestic sales data of recent years, forecast the demands from 2011 to 2015 as per this model. At last, based on the quantitative analysis, combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, compare and verify the forecast results. According to forecast results and market development, provide effective countermeasures to cope with changeable market.