Research On Multi-time Period Production And Procurement Plan Of Supply Chain Under Uncertainty

With the incremental development of world economic integration and market globalization, the competition among enterprises depends mostly on their supply chains. Enterprise is in dynamic economy environment, so various uncertain factors will affect the supply chain structure and corresponding operations. Research on supply chain management under uncertainty environment has both academic and practical values. Therefore, in this paper, multi-time period production plan of supply chain under uncertainty is studied. Considering the uncertainty of supply chain model, the algorithm will consider the design of stochastic simulation technologies with a combination of optimization techniques.Firstly, considering the multi-time period kernel enterprise procurement plan of supply chain under uncertain user needs, this paper establishes stochastic programming expectation model, and uses stochastic simulation techniques combining with particle swarm optimization approach to solve the model. According to customer needs and satisfaction as well as raw materials prices of suppliers in different time period, quantity of raw materials purchased are determined to achieving the minimal cost of overall supply chain.Secondly, considering the multi-time period kernel enterprise production and procurement plan of supply chain under uncertain user needs, according to customer needs in different time periods, product output are determined, then according to the kernel enterprises product output in different time periods, considering the uncertain raw materials prices of suppliers, quantity of raw materials purchased are determined to guarantee the production plan, achieving the overall supply chain production and procurement plan optimization of multi time periods. This paper establishes stochastic programming expectation model, and uses stochastic simulation techniques combining with particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm approach to solve the model.The paper also discussed the method of coding, the design of fitness function, initialization of population and treatment of constraints. Trough analysis of the result of an example, not only the validity of the algorithm is shown, but also an effective use of resources is shown by developing multi-time period production and procurement plan of supply chain considering stochastic model under uncertain demand.