Study On Intermediate Targets Of China Monetary Policy In Transitional Stage

Since the beginning of 2006, loan scale and money supply grows fast, leading to the fluid surplus. Facing the fluidity, the central bank has taken a series of measures: adjust bank reserve against deposits rate, adjust interest rate, carries on the open market operation and release bill. These measures all directly must first affect the monetary policy intermediary goal.This article analyses from the intermediary goal, divides the mechanism of monetary policy into the internal and exterior conduction mechanism. Then We take the intermediary goal as the key point, studied the money supply and the interest rate in our country situation from the internal conduction and exterior conduction angle separately.Contrasts with the domestic and foreign intermediary goals, We discovered that the western developed country gradually gives up take the money supply as the intermediary goal, turning to monitor more variables including interest rate and exchange rate in the policy operation process, along with the market economy development and the money market unceasing consummation,. This is a tendency and the rule.After analyzing the controls (relative to central bank) and the validity of the monetary policy intermediary goal (to monetary policy ultimate objective), we discovered that the money supply as intermediary goal has a bit out of control, the actual movement and the currency supplies plan goal has a bigger deviation. The foreign exchange occupies the funds to bring the enormous pressure for the foundation currency, causes the central bank release of currency into circulation to be in the passive position; The currency ultiplicator unstable and the expansion multiple was smaller, those all enormously affect the money supply regulation goal realization; Moreover, the currency multiplication and the foundation currency have the linkage, and they operate opposite. which causes the currency supply control more difficult; In the valid research, we used the VAR model to analyze to find that the interest rate was more and more begin the conduction validity to the ultimate objective influence, although our country still carried on the control to the interest rate. Meanwhile the currency supply relatively had the tendency to drop.We pondered on current monetary policy, one important reason of current fluid surplus is the increase of foreign exchange occupies the funds; The current monetary policy is the operation regulation based on the intermediary type and the economic environment during our country switcher; Small enhances the bank reserve against deposits rate is not violent under the our country current fluidity quite abundant condition. this kind of monetary policy manifests the characteristic of our country switcher time.Finally, we put forward the related proposal and the measure thinking the current condition and the intermediary goal: Reforms the system of settlement after sell exchanges, change passively causes the fluid surplus; loose the interest rate control in the opportune moment complied with the tendency, realize interest rate market; Strengthens the intermediary goal dynamic management, adjusts the intermediary goal the goal and so on at the right moment.