The CGE Simulation Analysis Of Capital Flow In Gansu Province Under The State's Support

The State Council plan to support the development of a number of observations of Gansu in 2010, I believe Gansu Province will be gradually reverse the flow direction in the support of the state capital,the main outflow from the original to the transition to flat or greater than the inflow and outflow outflows.Capital flows change bound makes industry in the economic activitiesi,elements,income,government accounts etc. larger changes,therefore, capital flows of the CGE simulation analysis and social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier theory analysis can effectively predict the economy with the corresponding change in key sectors and then make circumvention measures.This article along the Walrasian general equilibrium theory, combin-ation of social accounting matrix model, linear programming models and macro-econometric model. Application of principles of CGE modeling, parameter estimation methods to solve the state support for capital flows in Gansu Province under the simulated conditions.The CGE model is established, with the use of macro- closure rules and micro-closure rules,the solution in ensuring the existence and uniqueness,while CGE models to meet the data requirements, according to the general preparation of SAM principles, methods and means of leveling the preparation of the Gansu Province in 2007 SAM,and the generalized cross-entropy (CE) method was leveling processing. The basic structure of CGE models include four set of equations, namely demand equation, the supply equations, supply and demand equation and a balanced equation.In this paper, the optimization equation of the set of equations, analyze multi-element and multi-sector model, the model is expanded to include the government unit factors and external economic factors,describes the change in the capital of Gansu Province under the leading industries within the economic structure, the total de-mand and total supply, total output, total savings, government revenue and savings, income and savings accounts and other changes.This is in accordance with the general framework of the CGE model framework of the general modeling program to the whole article. Model-ing from the second chapter, Chapter II in the model selection and deriv-ation of the equations involved, the third chapter is the application of the model involved in the data base that is Gansu Province in 2007 and the balance of the establishment of SAM.The model of Chapter Parameter estimation and calibration is in the fourth chapter, the fifth chapter is the application of CGE model simulation results obtained and its economic analysis of Gansu province. The last Chapter is closing.