An Empirical Analysis On Regional Disparities Of Economic Growth And The Convergence Path In Shaanxi Province

Since the strategy to develop western regions carried out, Shannxi Pro vince keep improvement in stability, with its increasing synthesized econ omic strength. Because of many different factors, such as location, policy, and the economic base, the regional internal differences expands unceas ingly as well as Shaanxi overall's rapid economic development at thesame time. Northern economy in Shaanxi develop rapidly. Per capita GDP of only two city in northern occupied top two. However, the southern's economic go into stagnation, so north-south difference expands unceasingly. Persistent and excessive regional economic differences not only go against the whole province economy coordinated development but also deviate from the primary goal of the national economic and social development of Shaanxi Province:effectively promote balanced development among regions.Regional economic differences and regional economic convergence are relative concepts, narrowed differences means economy goes towards convergence. Based on expanding difference of regional economic in Shaanxi Province, this paper analyzed and inspected the regional economic difference and convergence from above two angles. To begin with, the paper analyzes the differences comparatively and decomposes it internally with statistical index method. And inspects whether economic growth must expand with differences by William inverse "U". Then the paper inspects the economic convergence in Shaanxi Province and club convergence respectively with neural network combined with classic cross-section regression and panel unit root. Finally, the paper starts from causal relationship between variables to analyze the regional economic convergence path of Shaanxi Province.Through above analysis, we get conclusion as follows:(1)The overall difference between Shaanxi regional economy have been expanding. Absolute difference rosed obviously while relative difference showed a lang-plus rising trend. Decomposing the overall difference, we found the center area internal differences are the main cause of regional economic differences, followed by the regional differences. Through the inspection we found that William inverse "U" hypothesis was founded in Shaanxi Province. (2)We use the neural network to forecast per capita GDP for 2010. The results after adjustment showed that exogenous variables is the main reasons to promote the economic convergence of Shaanxi in 2010. Test results showed that in the inspection period,σ-convergence did not exist in Shaanxi Province. Absoluteβ-convergence test results showed that the absolute convergence didn't appear in Shaanxi Province and only in 1999 to 2005 short-term absolute convergence appeared. Will the Stationary factor to join the model, conditionβ-convergence showed that industrialization, urbanization, information, marketization, location, promote the regional economy convergence from different degree. Panel unit root test showed that economic diverges in center area and club convergence exists in both northern and southern area. (3)Convergent path:human capitalâ†'laborâ†'investment in fixed assetsâ†'Per capita GDP.Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward the policy Suggestions for Shaanxi regional economic convergence.