A Spatial Econometric Analysis Of Hunan's City And Country Economic Growth Disparities And Convergence

Based on Hunan city and country-leveled statistics from the year 1998 to 2006,this article studys on Hunan economic disparity and convergence by statistics indicator analysis method and convergence analysis method.Firstly, the paper researches disparity of Hunan regional economy in static and dynamic using statistics indicator analysis method.The research result is that, In terms of dynamic,since 1998,the absolute disparity of Hunan different areas is spreading while relative disparity fluctuates up and down; In terms of static, the economic growth in Hunan province exists unbalance state.The result also implys that main causes effecting on the disparity is nature and location, system, elements and industry structures.Secondly, the paper analysis three kinds convergence using convergence analysis method.The first ,taking use of standard error and coefficient of variation analysis gets the result is that Hunan regionalδconvergence is found.The second,the author compares the panel data convergence model with cross-section convergence model and general panel data convergence model on demonstration results ofβconvergence .The conclusion is that spatial panel data model is more convincible. Through the spatial panel data convergence model, three discoveries are as follows: (1) The speed of convergence was 0.003 %, which indicates that original average GDP has influence on provincial economic growth convergence, but the affects is rather slight; (2) Capital growth rate, civilization and industrialization have positive effects on Hunan regional economic growth, nevertheless, government expenditures and economic growth rate play negative roles. (3) Lag variable takes on dramatic positive correlation with economic growth rate, which explains strong spatial dependence among cities and countryside in Hunan. Periphery area's economic growth could bring on significant affects on the whole region's economy;The result of testing club convergence is that there is club convergence in east of Hunan while not in west and middle of Hunan.In the end, the author puts forward feasible countermeasure suggestions.