Research On 3E-S (Economy, Energy, Environment - Security) System Model For Beijing

Other than economic development, energy conservation and pollution reduction become ones of the major targets of all governments as the Greenhouse Effect and environmental pollution increasing. As the capital and political and cultural center of China, Beijing has to solve the serious contradiction between economic development and environmental protection, and then build a virtuous economy– energy - environment system under the guidance of city security. In this paper, based on the domestic and foreign research, an Economy, Energy, Environment-Security (3E-S) Model of Beijing is proposed, which can help the policymakers of Beijing make relevant policies and achieve energy conservation goals or pollution reduction goals through providing scientific and timely data. A suit of software based on Beijing 3E-S Model is developed too.In this paper, the four components of Beijing 3E-S Model are introduced in turn, including Macro-economy Sub-model, Energy Demand Forecasting Sub-model, Energy Supply Optimizeing Sub-model and Safety Evaluation Sub-model. The Macro-economy Sub-model, which is supported mainly by Input-output Model, is the beginning part of the 3E-S. It aims at forecasting the development of macro-economy and industrial structure of Beijing. Energy Demand Forecasting Sub-model, which is supported mainly by LEAP Model, is aimed at forecasting the energy end demand of each economic sector in each energy type based on the result of previous model. Energy Supply Optimizeing Sub-model, which is supported by MARKAL Model, is aimed at propose an optimized energy supply plan under certain limitations of pollutant discharges based on the result of two previous models. And the Safety Evaluation Sub-model, which is supported by Economy– Energy– Environment Safety Index of Beijing, is aimed at testing and verifying whether the outcomes predicted and plans proposed by above sub-models is safe enough. Beijing 3E-S Model can be operated in either history data extrapolating mode or scenario analyzing mode.Furthermore, an example of application of Beijing 3E-S Model is provide, in which four different policy scenarios are setted and analyzed and several related policy suggestions are brought forward.