Early Warning System Design And Application Research For Real Estate Market Based On BP Neural Networks

Real estate has been the pillar industry of national economy with the features of wide correlation and strong driving.Real estate has the regular of Life-cyclefluctuation,too large ups and downs affects the healthy and stable development of the real estate.In recent years, due to excessive investment growth in some regions, over land supply, hous prices rising too fast, there have been varying degrees of overheating,and the structural problems,real estate faces more serious market risks.Meanwhile,the real estate as a subsystem of the socio-economic system has nonlinear characteristics of complex systems.Purpose of this paper is to solve nonlinear problems of real estate systems,and to establish more advanced real estate early-warning system to avoid abnormal fluctuations and promote healthy and stable development of the real estate market.The idea map and content of This paper is as follows:The first part, research on an economic early warning theory, periodic wavetheory,Neural Networks theory and the theory of the computer system based on reading and sorting relevant literature, This article sorts out the idea of early warning model for real estate market based on BP neural network. Construct early warning model for Beihai real estate market. using Matlab to train and test the model of Beihai early warning model.The result shows that this model has good generalization ability.The second part is to construct computer system of early warning system for real estate market based on BP Neural Networks on the model.The third part is to select Beihai real estate market as an empirical research.We apply the real estate early warning system to Beihai real estate market.Collected historical data of Beihai City real estate market, process 7 sample data for BP neural network training, using these datas as the input of the computer system, calculated to get output. calculating results show that the conditions of Beihai real estate market in the year of 2011 will be "hot" state.In addtion,we put forward some suggestions for Beihai real estate market.Finally,we puts forward the application area of the system and the proposal of the system improvement.