| Fresh Apple is one of the few agricultural products that are of competitiveness after China's entry into WTO, the fresh apple export plays an important role in stimulating agricultural economy and the development of entire national economy. This paper combines the international trade theories with the concrete practice of Chinese fresh apple export, and adopts the empirical research methodology which is based on theoretical and statistical analysis. It focuses on the research of the trend and main characteristics of Chinese fresh apple export by analyzing the data which shows the changing of fresh apple trade volume during the period 1992~2008 in China and other major fresh apple export countries.The main research contents and arguments are as follows:Analysis on distribution and evolution characteristics of Chinese fresh apple export reveals that Chinese fresh apple export appears an obvious trend of growing in fluctuation, and the fluctuation is of remarkable periodicity. Analysis on the trade concentration of Chinese fresh apple export indicate that the Chinese fresh apple export is still of high trade concentration, which is not good for spreading trade risk. Besides, research on the comparative advantage of Chinese fresh apple using RSCA indicator displays that, compared with other major exporting countries of fresh apple in the world, China is possibly losing its comparative advantage in fresh apple export.In order to find out the factors influencing Chinese fresh apple export, this paper employs the model of Constant Market Share Analysis (CMS) to separate the factors in terms of market demand, export competitiveness, Market distribution structure and the interaction effect among each other, The discussion emphasizes the source of the export growth of Chinese fresh apple and the influencing factors which lead to the present trading situation of Chinese fresh apple. The results worked out by CMS model reveals that the export growth of Chinese fresh apple can be attributed to the improvement of the entire export competitiveness of Chinese fresh apple after entering WTO and the fact that the growth speed of importing demand from Chinese fresh apple's major exporting markets is higher than the average growth speed of the world market. The interaction effect between above two factors works as the most important source for the growth of Chinese fresh apple export. On the other hand, the main target export markets of Chinese fresh apple are not in conformity with that of the world. Chine fresh apple export markets concentrate on East Asia and South Asia countries which do not or seldom produce fresh apple, while the major importing countries of fresh apple are European and North American countries such as Germany, UK, Russia, Netherlands, Canada, Mexico, France and USA. The analyzing result by CMS model reveals that, the present market structure of Chinese fresh apple export is not good for further export growth. In the last some suggestions are made according to the above research results. |
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