| In recent years, local governments strive to develop follow-up characteristic fruit industries to cooperate with the "returning land from farming to forestry" project. The sustained and sound development of these industries is close related to maintaining and expanding the projects'achievements, also benefit to increasing peasant incomes and social stability. Central and local governments have been laying out a lot to former agricultural infrastructure and industry base. But farmers are operators, and sustainable development of these industries relies on the follow-up investment of them. However, in many places, the government's target is hard to realize. Farmers'neglecting on management and investment can be seen everywhere, the development speed of these follow-up industries is far below expectations.This research took Luonan County which is a key area of grain to green policy and walnut industries as a case, made research and survey plans based on related literature and correlation theory home and abroad, carried on investigation and data analysis to study the key factor, farmers operational funds, which is very important in agricultural industry. This paper firstly analyzed the basic condition and the plant scale, processing, market and policy support status quo of walnut industry in Luonan, constructed comprehensive evaluation indices system suit for characters of walnut industry, then measured the development level of walnut industry in Luonan, and figure out the pivotal role of farmer operational investment. Secondly this paper analyzed the quantity and structure of farmer operational investment. Considering dominance variance simultaneous, brought in some recessive variables which were neglected or hard to quantification like social capital, farmers'anticipations, and farmers'satisfaction to technical service et al, and made corresponding hypothesis. Then on that basis, select variables and tectonic econometric model to analyze factors and their impacts. Finally analyzed mode of action of them, and gave out our targeted suggestions to improve farmer's operational investment in Luonan walnut industry.Main conclusions of this paper are: (1) Luonan walnut industry got a score of 75.78, which indicates an overall development trend, the governments'former investment was in place, and the industry has on its way, while the farmer's operational investment became the key factor of its development. (2) Farmer's operational investment is generally very low and its structure unreasonable in Luonan walnut industry. (3) Householder's education, gender, acreage of walnut, proportion of walnut income in total, quantity of labor force, wish to plant walnut, satisfaction to the government's technology service, and social capital were dramatically positive correlation with farmer's operational investment. While, the householder's age, anticipation to walnut planting were dramatically negative correlation with it. (4) Three recessive variables brought in all had good performance which tally with research hypothesis, farmer's expectation to market had dramatically negative impacts to farmer's operational investment, which was didn't tally with research hypothesis, possible reason would be the dependence of household's income on walnut planting. Above all, their marked impact on farmers'operational investment indicates that studying farmers'investment behavior with these recessive variables means a lot.This research suggests that these measures may make for improving farmer's operational investment, and speed up the development agricultural industry: (1) Enhance agricultural technology extension, demonstration, and farmer training, emancipate farmers'minds. (2) Enhance government's technology service to improve farmer's satisfaction of technology. (3) Carry forward rural community culture and walnut association construction to strength farmer's social capital network and accumulation. (4) Implement reform of collective forest rights and the land circulation system, foster specialized households of walnut planting, which is propitious to scale management. (5) Import or foster walnut leading enterprise, better market environment, play a part in improving farmer's operational investment, and speed up the process of agriculture industrialization. |
