Applied Research Of Time Series Analysis In Forecasting Shandong Province's GDP

GDP is the abbreviation of gross domestic product. It is the total value of production of all final goods and services of a national or regional economy in a period of time. It is a general macro-economic indicators used to measure a country or a region's overall level of economic development.The aim of adopting time series to analyze and forecast Shandong's economy is to compare the data difference in different economic plates through time series model method and to provide reference for making macro-economic developing targets of Shandong Province. How to analyze macro-economy using models to regulate it effectively has become an important premise in developing a country's economy.In this dissertation, the author analyzes systematically the GDP data of Shandong Province from 1988 to 2008, and forecasts its GDP in 2009 based on the SPSS and EXCEL to get the difference between forecasting and reality. The author analyzes the growth law of Shandong's GDP through econometric model, raises error-correcting method, forecasts Shandong's GDP in 2009, analyzes the reasons why errors appear in forecasting GDP and the aspects the GDP cannot reflect, puts forward green GDP and points out the weakness of GDP. Though problems exist, they help to understand the data of GDP correctly.Time series analysis method forecasts GDP correctly to a large extent, finds the law of economic developing in Shandong Province, the percentage and effect of different economic plates, the economic differences and advantages between cities of Shandong Province and even their development prospects under new macro-economic policy of the country and the influence of world economy. It has played an important role in regulating macro-economy and provided evidence for the country's budget. The meaning of this dissertation rests on testing the former forecasting of macro-economic regulation and practice, finding and correcting problems and providing reference for future economic development based on the scientific theory and practical development.