Research On Dynamic Game Mechanism Design And Optimizer For Multi-players In Real Estate Market Of China

From the early 1990s, real estate stepped on the economic stage in China as an independent industry. As the establishment of the socialist market economy system and the reformation of the urban housing system, the real estate industry entered fast developing circle. In recent years, the rapid growth of house price had made it far beyond the purchasing power of the public, which threatens people's basic survival demand. The positive outcomes of the government's policies on real estate in the past years had been minor, so that the government starts to shift its policy pivot to the supply of indemnificatory houses. On one hand, the volume indemnificatory houses has to be assured to satisfy the public's demand; on the other hand, the positive effect of real estate industry to the whole market must be fully utilized. The key point of policies on real estate industry is to establish right directions, quantify the scale of indemnificatory houses, develop solid developing mechanism and assure the execution of policy. Once the policy is made, the maintenance of effective policy execution and efficiency is the key tache of macro-adjustment, which is also the key reason why government's policy on real estate industry had been vulnerable. To sum up, to the real estate industry, the key points for price control are the scientific policy formulation and the efficiency of execution.From the supply and demand relations of the real estate market, this article analyzed the malformed supply-demand antinomy. Through the research of relations between different components of the real estate market, based on the purpose of serving the governments adjustment, a dynamic game theory model was built. First, based on investigations and former researches, the government's policies and outcomes on the real estate industry were discussed; according to the real estate market, especially the change of house prices of the main cities, the trend of the real estate market was drawn. By building the game theory model between the government and the real estate developers, the optimized ratios between commercial real estate and indemnificatory houses can provide theoretical support to the government. After the policies are proposed, this article creatively considered the way to improve the government's enthusiasm for real estate adjustment to assure execution efficiency which may provide order and criterion to the market. The creativity and conclusions of this article are as follows: 1) Through literation survey, it is discovered that most game theory models towards real estate market analyze from the behavior choice of different components, while ignore the interaction between the housing source configuration and the price. Under current indemnificatory housing policies, this article discussed the interaction and influences between the government and real estate developers and the possible reactions of different component toward the opposing component, dynamically analyzed real estate supply strategy of the government and the real estate developers.2) Based on the dynamic game theory model analysis, this article creatively discussed the ratio between indemnificatory housing and commodity housing, from the housing configuration point of view. In the market, the major commodity houses are top and middle grade, which makes"desirable"demand hard to satisfy. The market starts to become abnormal. Under this condition, the government has to provide indemnificatory houses to neutralize this conflict. In this way, some demands are met, so that the price increase is suppressed. When providing indemnificatory houses, both economic growth demand and public living demand should be met. The ratio between indemnificatory house and commodity housed should be determined by local government according to the local social and economy circumstance. Through the construction of optimized configuration, referential directions can be provided to the government.3) After the announcement of policies, execution must be efficient. This article emphasized the importance of government enthusiasm on execution and the way to improve it. By building game theory models between the government and the public, the influence of the perception of government execution by the public towards government execution was discussed. To conclude, if consumers consider the government efficient, in other word, with strong determination and intensity, the more profound the image is, the more efficient the government will exhibit. Base on this conclusion and combined with the discussion above, this article propose a method, which will improve the government's enthusiasm toward indemnificatory house supply. The method is that build an image in which an aggressive government is depicted. In this way, the government will be full of enthusiasm toward indemnificatory houses and maintain good reputation. Then, optimized scheme was proposed– the government should maintain good execution efficiency. Only in this way could a good policy execution circulation be formed.