| Recently, with the rapid growth of national economy, China's house market has experienced prosperous development. But, behind the prosperity, worry about such market is growing as well. Whether the temporary hike of house price give rise to the menace of the steady development of the economy? And how should we deal with the impetuous rise of house price? Such problems have been focused on and been researched widely. On the base of predecessor's research, first, this paper use economics theories to mainly talk about the relationship between house price and macroeconomic variables. House price can influence the economy in three ways, that is wealth effect; finance acceleration effect and Tobin's Q effect. Under the three tunnel, the influence of house price can pass to the real economy.Then we build a VECM model to quantitatively analyze the relationship among the house price, inflation rate and growth rate of GDP. From the positive research result, we can conclude that house price can significantly affect the inflation rate and GDP growth rate. So as we do the macroscopic readjustment and control work, we should consider the factor of house price.Next, in the second part of this paper, we focus on the relationship of the house price and the economy, which is the conclusion of the first part of the paper. A mainstream view is that, using monetary policy to reaction to the house price fluctuation. That because lots of researches prove that, among some kinds of assets, the pertinence between house price and economy is the strongest. Scholars also pointed out that, if the monetary policy refer to a price index that comprising house price, such policy can achieve a better outcome. Whereas, in China, relative researches in such area are rare, so we attempt to construct the Chinese DEPI price index which include the house price. And we hope to find out an appropriate price index to guide our monetary policy. By comparison, we found that the DEPI fit the economic condition well and can predict the trend of economy to some extent.In the following part, using BEKK model, we find that the DEPI, compared to the house price, is a good target that the monetary policy can focus on. In the end of the paper we provide some suggestions. |
