The Research On Forecasting The Trend Of Commercial Residence Price In China

Real estate industry is one of the most important pillars that sustain a nation's economy. Therefore, it is imperative to make sure that the real estate industry is functioning well. The commercial residence price in China has kept its upward trend for several years, and the speed at which it has been rising has far exceeded the growth rate of China's aggregate output. This phenomenon makes me wonder:what are the factors that push China's commercial residence price to such a high point? Besides, why policies made by the government to control the situation can not have a real impact? Is the sluggish momentum that appears in the real estate market recently an indicator of a forthcoming turning point? To answer these questions, we have to take a deep look at the factors that affect commercial residence price.This paper is composed of five chapters:In the first chapter, I did a thorough literature review of foreign and domestic literatures on price fluctuation and prediction on real estate, and expounded the topic background, the significance, research questions and methodology of this paper. In ChapterⅡ, I comprehensively analyzed the main factors that affect commercial residence prices in China. In ChapterⅢ, I established a system of indicators, and constructed linear regression models using econometric methods from different points of view. In ChapterⅣ, Multifactor Fussy Evaluation Method was used to set up a pricing model, and with the help of it, I predicted the future trend of the movement of China's commercial residence price. In ChapterⅤ, I gave a summary of this paper and made several proposals for the development of the commercial residence market of China.The main conclusions and achievements of this paper are illustrated as follows. First, it establishes an indicator system that reflects the fluctuation of China's commercial residence price. With the help of econometric models, it analyses the main factors that affect China's commercial residence price from several perspectives. Second, by putting weights to the factors identified as relevant, a pricing model is built to predict the future trend of the movement of China's commercial residence price. The weight assigned to each factor is determined not only by its current condition, but also the trend and the trend's trend. Using the models listed above, this paper comes to the conclusion that up until July 2010, demand for commercial housing was still quite strong. Although supply was increasing as well, the increasing cost to build houses and the enthusiasm expressed by real estate developers impose an opposite impact. After a comprehensive analysis, I believe there are strong reasons to believe that commercial residence price in China will continue to rise.The achievements of this paper have certain valuable reference to further study the relationship between the commercial residence price, their influence factors and the prediction of its future trend. The future research can be extended to the optimization of the indicator system, the construction of the model function, the expansion of the sample data and optimization of the weights assigned to each factor.