Study On Wind-shear Forecast Based On Doppler Weather Radar

Dangerous weather is an important factor which influences flight safety, in which wind-shear is the most dangerous. Low altitude wind-shear is sudden appearance and short duration. It's little time for pilot to make right decision. So it's essential to forecast wind field before real-time wind field information.Wind-shear forecasting is discussed in the thesis using data collected by Hong Kong International Airport Doppler LIDAR. Detailed work is as follows:1) Grey forecast, BP neural network, Brown three exponential smoothing, Support vector regression on PPI scan data are used in wind field forecast experiment, from which forecast wind speed map can be got.2) Using the above four algorithms to forecast wind field with glide path scan data. Extract headwind and wind-shear ramp from the data and show wind-shear alert.3) After analyzing forecasting results, a new method named Position Amendment and Fluctuation Compensation grey forecast (PAFC) is designed, which using BP neural network as position amendable module and smooth as fluctuation compensative module.4) Build a comprehensive wind-shear warning system based on OPENGL and MFC, which has wind field forecasting, radar echo display, head-wind profile and wind-shear ramp extraction, wind-shear alert function.