Application Of Emergence Of Swarm Intelligence In Forecasting Webciety's Public Sentiment

Because of the similarity between the process of the emergence of swarm intelligence and the process of generating Webciety's public sentiment, this thesis proposes to apply the emergence of swarm intelligence to the design of Webciety's public sentiment forcast system.Discovering Webciety's public sentiment in time is helpful for social stability. Monitering Webciety's public sentiment constitutionally has a defect. When a monitering system successfully discovers a bombshell in Webciety, the harm may have already been generated, existing and transmited. So this thesis suggests forecasting the Webciety's Bombshell before it erupted out. That means the forecasting system should estimate if a piece of news would become the trigger of a Bombshell, at the time the news just published on the Web, or during transmitting in the Web, in any case before the eruption of Bombshell.The emergence of swarm intelligence is an admirable phenomenon found from social insect. The research of the mechanism of the emergence of swarm intelligence is trying to solve such question:what swarm can performance advanced intelligence. The general characteristics of the emergence of the swarm intelligence are summed up, according to some references and the author's ideas.The design of the intelligent individual is the key point of designing a intelligent swarm. And the individual's private utility is one of the key of designing an intelligent individual. The method of obtaining individual's private utility from the swarm's global utility is introduced. Then the method is applied to design virtual swarm of the Webciety's public sentiment forcast system. The computing method is improved as doing a part of computation of private utility while the swarm evoluting.Finally, a prototype system for forcasting Webciety public sentiment is designed and implemented. The prototype system is designed based on the theory of the emergence of swarm intelligence. The prototype system creates emulational agents according to Blog authors'personality. After the evolution of the emulational swarm consisted of the emulational agents, the messages that most deserve real Web user group's attention were forcasted.