A Study On CADTV Market Diffusion Based On Improved Norton Model

Broadcast television's digitization level is an important index, reflecting social informatization, national informatization, and city informatization. It is also in line with the new trend of the development of broadcast television. The advance of digital broadcast television will help meet people's growing spiritual and cultural needs and improving people's living standards. Digital TV(hereafter referred to as DTV) has not only arises a huge market, but it also promotes structure adjustments and upgrading of DTV industry. It even leads to a new technological revolution worldwide. The development of this emerging industry has attracted wide attention from governments around the world. Currently countries are actively looking for corresponding strategies.In the process of digitization in cable digital TV(hereafter referred to as CADTV), it includes innovation diffusion of new products or new technology. In the dissemination of communication studies and the fields of marketing, few scholars have study the process of innovation diffusion of CADTV. This paper firstly analysis customer value influence factors of user adoption of DTV, from the customer value and customer value chain, and using factor analysis to extract common factors. Then, based on the common factors, Bass Model, Norton Model and an improved Norton Model that mixed with competition factors are employed to conduct the empirical research of the trends of the diffusion of adoption and substitution for successive generations of CATV. Finally, Regression Analysis is used to explore the correlation between sales volume of digital Set-Top Boxes and the increasing user of DTV.The results reveal that, it is price, features, reputation, policies and alternatives in proper sequence affects customers in selecting DTV. The improved Norton Model interestedly reflects these above factors so as to be more close to reality, and gain high correspondence degree and accuracy in prediction. The current market capacity of DTV obtains a rapidly growth, compared with 160 million uses in 2012, it will endure a relative slow increase after 2012, but it will finally exceed 200 million around 2015. Whenever DTV users index changes 1, the Digital Set-Top Box sales index will change about 1.065 in the same direction. Suggestions for the government presented in this paper can help with important guidance to make seasonable policy adjustments and ensure industry development goals on schedule. Meanwhile as for the network operators, equipment suppliers and content providers in the chain of DTV industry, it is an important reference in grasping business opportunities and seizing more market share.The major innovation of this paper is adopting the improved Norton Model, which integrated with competition factors in research of DTV industry. That makes it more practical and makes up the deficiencies in the applications of innovation diffusion models.