Research On Econometric Model Of Migration Based On Coordinated Development Of Urban And Ruralareas

This paper studies the population of rural-urban migration standing on the coordinated development of urban and rural perspective, it aims to reveal rule of rural-urban migration and provide a theoretical and political basis for promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.This paper analyzes urban-rural migration and the coordinated development of urban and rural interaction mechanism, proposes construction the framework of simultaneous equation model of urban-rural migration and the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, the model includes the equation of rural and urban migration, urban and rural development co-ordination equations, equations of compatibility of urban and rural social security. Through in-depth analysis of the impact of urban-rural migration factors, this paper select urban development factor, urban social security factor, rural development factor and rural social security factor by factor analysis method from the perspective of space and time. A spatial analysis of panel data finds that urban-rural migration in the range of country's 30 provinces (municipalities) fits the fixed effects model; urban and rural migration is influenced by urban factors which is known as "pull" effect and rural factor which is known as "push" effect. Using time series data analyze impulse response of the various factors on urban-rural migration of the hysteresis effect.The further empirical analysis of simultaneous equation model shows that the increase in migration in the range of 30 provinces (municipalities) promotes the development and the social security level of rural, and urban and rural development is coordinated, but the social security level is not coordinated. View from the east central and western regions, the eastern region has the least amount of urban and rural population migration, and lack of coordination of urban and rural development, the western region has the largest urban-rural migration, urban and rural development is to coordinate, The central urban migration is in the middle, but the coordination of urban and rural development is coordinated best; three regions of the social security of urban and rural areas is not coordinated; from a historical perspective of changes in the empirical results show that the amount of urban-rural migration and the coordinated development level of urban and rural areas in the first decade after reform is larger than the last decade, but there is a downward trend in the level of coordination; urban and rural social security level is inconsistent, but inconsistent degree is weakening.This paper creatively use the simultaneous equations in the econometric model of rural-urban migration and the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, it is a certain degree of methodological innovation; according to the empirical results analyze the process of rural-urban migration and the coordinated development of urban and rural areas from the perspective of space and time, it provides a theoretical reference for planning the national population policy from the perspective of coordination of urban and rural, it is of great practical significance.