| With the continuous development and progress of electric vehicles, the planning and construction of charging facilities will enter a large-scale era, and study on the layout planning of charging facilities is imminent. Accurate forecast of the electricity demand and spatial distribution of electric vehicles will provide a vital reference for electric vehicles charging facilities planning.In this article, private vehicles and taxis which have strong randomness in trips are chosen as objects in the research on the spatial distribution forecast methods of charging demand. After detailed analysis and comparison, we found that, according to different charging modes, the charging demand of electric vehicles includes charging load demand (corresponding to ordinary and rapid charging mode) and charging power demand (corresponding to battery replacement mode). According to the operation of existing electric vehicles, private vehicles are mainly charged in the way of spread ordinary charging mode, while taxis in some areas are mainly charged in the way of battery replacement mode. Therefore, this article will focus on these two typical cases, and conduct research on the spatial distribution forecast of charging load demand for private electric vehicles and charging power demand for electric taxis respectively.1) According to the analysis of travel characteristics of private vehicles and the thought of gravity model, considering the situation of land use and distance, the trip distribution prediction model of private electric vehicles is established. Through the analysis of the charging characteristics of passenger electric vehicles, the calculating method of charging load is proposed. With the combination of these two proposed, the spatial distribution forecasting methods and procedures of charging load demand are raised.2) According to the analysis of travel characteristics of electric taxis, the trip distribution prediction model of electric taxis is established. Through the analysis of the charging characteristics of electric taxis, the calculating method of daily charging power is proposed. With the combination of these two proposed, the spatial distribution forecasting methods and procedures of charging power demand are raised.Finally, take an area as an example, the application of the proposed methods were carried out to forecast, respectively, the spatial distribution of charging load demand for private electric vehicles and charging power demand for electric taxis. Through the analysis of the results, a certain rationality of this method is indicated. |
