Research On The Spatial-temporal Forecast Model Of Charging Demand For Large-scale Electric Vehicle

As a new means of transport,Electric vehicles have an incomparable role in both easing the energy crisis and promoting the harmonious development of man and nature in the background of serious environmental pollution and energy shortages.Large-scale application development has become an inevitable trend.Load forecasting of electric vehicles is the core and foundation of the development of electric vehicles.EV load forecasting accuracy is directly related to the future development of the electric vehicles and the grid security.Current electric vehicles in developed countries still belong to the early promotion.Charging load forecasting of electric vehicles is still on the exploratory stage.Therefore,this article focus on the electric vehicle load forecasting conducted a study to deepen,expand the following work:(1)Analysis of the development of electric vehicles at home and abroad as well as electric vehicle load forecasting research status.Then Point out the application and implementation of socio-economic and environmental significance of large-scale development of electric vehicles from many angles and summarizes several major shortcomings of current electric car load forecasting model.Point out that the electric vehicle load forecasting of electric vehicles to promote the premise and foundation.(2)Detail analysis of the different types of electric vehicle charging behavior under different charging modes base on the main factors that affect the electric vehicle load.Establish the electric vehicle load forecasting model.By using the Monte Carlo method,charging load on different types of electric vehicles were calculated.And predict the daily load curve of the future of electric vehicle charging load.(3)Combined with improved parking demand model,the spatial-temporal load forecasting model is built.Analyze the factors affecting the charging load from the aspects of the car type,start charging time,battery capacity and charging power.The load of EV at different times in different regions is simulated by using the Monte Carlo method.(4)Point out that the current electric car load forecasting deficiencies and difficulties.Useful suggestions for the future development of electric vehicles are suggested.