Study On Traffic Rescue Resources Dispatch Strategy Based On Improved Opportunity Cost Method

"Rapidly disposal of expressway incident warning and emergency and achievement of the emergency equipment resources" is currently a hot area of Expressway Traffic Safety directions. How to dispatch the emergency rescue resources to accident sites in the shortest time with lowest cost, implementation of the rescue to minimize property damage has become the main focus of traffic safety at home and abroad. The paper relys on the "HongKong ZhuHai Macao Bridge" emergency linkage project, carried out study of the traffic emergency rescue resources strategy. The specific works are as follows:(1) Concerned aboat super-long tunnel combination characteristic of "H-Z-M Bridge", through aging analysis for the Hungarian method, Direct cost method and Opportunity Cost Method, comprehensive analysis of the applicable conditions of the3kinds of the rescue resources dispatch method. According to the demand of the unexpected events on the road network, stability and reliability for emergency resources are very important, Based on the global optimum angle, select Opportunity Cost Method as rescue resources dispatch strategy for "H-Z-M Bridge".(2) Against the problem of there are large differences between the road traffic conditions, rescue speed and the actual rescue process which are set by the Opportunity Cost Method, considering the effect of the road conditions, accident type on rescue time and rescue costs, In order to reflect the impact of the rescue vehicle speed on the direct costs, introduct the probability of weakening rescue speed, proposed a improved Opportunity Cost Method Model, and uses expert scoring method to establish the weight of evaluation system of the probability of various factors to the potential accidents and the probability of weakening rescue speed.(3) Aiming at the probability of potential accident and the factor of influencing rescue vehicle speed weigh have the characteristics of some uncertainty and difficult to quantify, this paper proposed the combination of GA-BPNN model that based on genetic algorithm and BP neural network algorithm, and used genetic algorithm to optimize weight and threshold of BP neural network connection, then, the test sample were calculated and analyzed at BP neural network, finally, acquired the optimized values that are the probability of potential accidents and the probability of weakening rescue vehicle speed. (4) Based on Matlab software platform, program of the combined model of improved opportunity cost method and GA-BPNN is developed, and the optimized probability of potential accidents and weaking rescue speed are substituted into the improved Opportunity Cost Method to calculate the aging. The results of camparing the rescue resource dispatch strategy with the original model prove that improved Opportunity Cost Method is effective and feasible, rescue-time-efficiency is better, the availability of rescue resource is higher.