A Multi-source Information Fusion Estimation Method For The Customer Time-sharing Interruption Cost

In the role of the market, for users, the reliability of the power system is able to get reliable and continuous power supply. Simultaneously, the reliability of the power system affects the operating economic benefit of the electric power enterprise. So, whether is for the power supply enterprise or the power user, the concerning degree for interruption cost in enhances unceasingly. How to calculate the outage loss scientifically and reasonably has become the hotspot research work in recent years.Based on the existing research results for the power loss, this paper makes further exploration for the calculation method of user outage losses, pointing out the importance for economic benefit of the power system reliability and the grid planning, generally describing the research status and estimation method for the interruption cost.This paper describes the basic theory related to the power outage losses, qualitatively discussing the factors influencing the power losses, analyzing the calculating methods which are used commonly or generally accepted. Because the investigation and statistical data result is the foundation for the power loss estimation, this paper introduces the basic ideas for the user survey in the power loss, and gives, the main content of the survey design.In order to solve the estimation problem of the time-sharing interruption cost in the case of "poor information", a "validity of multi-source information" concept was presented based on the theory of multi-source information fusion, and the output value of unite of electric energy consumption on the area to be assessed, the information fusion of time-sharing interruption cost function, least squares curve fitting, the estimation method to estimate the time-sharing interruption cost by the curve of colligation time-sharing interruption cost function were also presented. The use of curve or analytic expression of the interruption cost function makes it more convenient.In this paper, on the basis of the matter-element theory establishes time-sharing interruption cost multi-source information fusion method, using basic theory of the multi-source information fusion to solve the index weight, which reflects the influence degree for the information fusion objectively for each index, then finding out the validity of multi-source information, getting the basic function data of the interruption cost.This paper combines the multi-source information fusion estimation model and the practical application of the interruption cost estimation, using the basic theory of the multi-source information fusion, from the matter-element experts validity thoughts, putting forward the theory of multi-source information validity for the basic colligation load interruption cost curve, solving the matter that it needs to do a lot of user survey in the interruption cost calculation or poor information. According to the basic power loss function and the unit power output of the area for estimating, and the calculating method in being, the interruption cost function for different time can be get.This estimate model what is time-sharing interruption cost estimation based on the multi-source information fusion can makes researchers need not to go for a tedious power user statistical investigation, which saves a lot of manpower and material. The model calculation process is simple and convenient, versatility, more conducive to interruption cost estimation and power system reliability economic benefit research.