The Analysis Of Carrying Capacity And Optimal Allocation Of Dalian's Water Resource

Dalian is one of serious water shortage regions in northern China, the average per person water resources quantity 604m3, is equal separately to the world and the national level l/10 and l/4.Along with the economic development, living standards enhancement, people exploits and utilizes water resources on a large scale continually and diseharges a volume of waste water, which not only result the water resources quantity reduction, but also the quality of water resources is gradually reduce. And these cause many countries and regions have severe water problems and water resources crisis, the water problem has become the bottleneck of sustainable economic development in Dalian. Studies on the carrying capacity and the disposition optimal analysis to Dalian,s water resourees has significance for regulating the relationship between water resources and national economic development of Dalian.The main study content and conelusions are as follows:(1) Analysis and description of some fundamental conceptions and theories of evaluation of water resources the Carrying Capacity and the disposition. Analyzed the water resources carring capacity, including definition, connotation, characteristies and influence factors; concept, principle, study content and form of water resources disposition are elaborated.(2) The status of physiographic, socity economic and water resource in Dalian. Take Dalian as study region, colleeting the related date, sununarized the status of water resources, soeiety and eceonomy decelopment, and ecological environment in Dalian.(3) The regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation method based on Main Component Analysis theory is introduced in this paper and the index system for evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is established, the degree of water carrying capacity in 2001～2009 has been evaluated. The results show the carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian is decreasing year by year, resulting the reduction of sustion development of the city.The water resources already became restricts the Dalian social economy and the ecological environment coordinated development primary factor.(4) System dynamics software used Vensim, set up a water distribution system dynamics model of water resources in Dalian , seeks solves the Dalian water resources short way and the way. The simulation results show that the amount of water demand is 3.270×10~9m~3,3.256× 10~9m~3,3.310×10~9m~3,3.433×10~9m~3,3.513×10~9m~3and 3.560×10~9m~3in the year of 2010,2013,2016,2019,2022 and 2025 respectively. And the available water amount is 2.316×10~9m~3,2.480×10~9m~3,2.649×10~9m~3,2.822×10~9m~3,2.993×10~9m~3,3.162×10~9m~3 respectively.The balant of supply and demand of water resources is 9.547×10~8m~3,8.237×10~8m~3,7.530×10~8m~3,7.338×10~8m~3,6.658×10~8m~3,5.596×10~8m~3 respectively. And the water resources shortage degree is 0.292,0.249,0.221,0.206,0.182,0.150 respectively.FiIlally, research results of the whole paper are given, some research to be futher stuldied are presented.