Prediction Research On Harbin Water Resources Carrying Capancity By System Dynamic Model

Water resources carrying capacity can effectively measure the water security issues,plays a significant role in recognizing and solving the water security issues and theconstruction of water resources security system. But so far, there is not a unifiedconcept of water resources carrying capacity. First of all, a universal concept of waterresources carrying capacity was put forward by summing up the representative views atDomestic and foreign, what’s more, related supporting theory were made a deepanalysis; Secondly, by VensimPLE6.2,Water resources carrying capacity SD model thatputs The balance of supply and demand of water resources as a core and Waterresources and the environment as constraint condition was set up after making a systemanalysis of Harbin’s water resources, water environment and the current situation anddevelopment of the water sectors. The results of validity check show that the model hasgood robustness and can meet the needs of research; Finally, Harbin city socialeconomy development without constraint condition, Harbin city Water resourcescarrying capacity with constraint condition as well as five kinds of assumed solutionwere simulated by using the model.The simulation results of Harbin city social economy development and Harbin cityWater resources carrying capacity show that: Water resources will be no enough bearingcapacity to support Harbin social and economic development in the future. After2017,the water demand of Harbin city will exceed Harbin’s water control target, there will bea policy shortage of water resources. What’s more, The overload of the agriculture willappear primarily, followed by the industry, finally, the third industry.The simulation results of five kinds of assumed solution show that: Water savingscheme can effectively ease the water problem of Harbin city in the near future,recently,the socioeconomic development of Harbin without Serious water problems and therewill be a big water saving space; Industrial structure adjustment and agriculturalstructure adjustment scheme can obviously improve the Harbin water resources carryingcapacity in the future, because of the two kinds of solutions reducing agricultural waterat a certain extent, in addition, alleviating the water shortages of the other industrieseffectively；Pollution treatment has no significant effect to the water resources carryingcapacity, but it can effectively reduce pollution and improve the environment in thefuture; Comprehensive scheme that includes the effective measures of the four schemesmentioned above, can improve Harbin water resources carrying capacity mostsignificantly in the future, but except agriculture.