Study On Performance Analysis Model Of Safety Evaluation

The level of work safety can not only reflects a country's economic developmental level and the management level from the side, but also related to the stability and harmony of the society. Therefore, the related study on the safety evaluation system which as a technical supporting for the work safety has been gradually paid great attention to. But because of the characteristics of the performance of safety evaluation, which include hysteresis, concealment and complexity and so on, the performance of safety evaluation can not be expressed by finished products like other input. So it is important to clear and definite the concept of the safety evaluation performance and to quantitatively analyse the performance of safety evaluation as far as possible. Therefore, the economic contribution rate and the accidents of work safety as two indexes in this paper, and then to systematically study the contribution rate of safety evaluation on economic growth and the relationship between the safety evaluation and the economic development based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Gray System Theory. The main research contents and results as follows:(1)The contribution rate of safety evaluation on economic growth as an evaluation index of performance, and then the estimation model of safety evaluation performance is established based on AHP and questionnaire survey, and also combined with the Solow's Growth Model and the influence factors on safety evaluation effect. As a result, the contribution rate of safety evaluation on economic growth in China from2002to2009is1.54%.(2)The number of accidents about dangerous chemicals in Henan province from2002to2006as the original series, and then the first order average weakening buffer operator is constructed combined with the current trend of economic development in China. Based on the values of parameters, which a is0.043821, a is0.095162and b is10.596082, the GM (1,1) power model is established in this paper. Then, the average relative error of the values of simulation is accounted for7.1670%, and the precision grade is belong to the range from level2to level3. As a result, the accidents of dangerous chemicals of Henan province from2007to2011can be calculated by the GM (1,1) power model, and they show that the actual accidents occurred in recent years are significantly lower than the predicted. That is to say, safety evaluation has an effect on the reduction of accidents.(3)The relevance between accidents of dangerous chemicals and the GDP year-on-year growth rates from2002to2010of Henan province is analyzed based on the improved correlation degree of grey slope coefficient. And it is accounted for0.5037, which indicates that the two elements have negative correlation. Therefore, the increase of the number of accidents can slow down the growth of GDP. Combined with the results of prediction via GM (1,1) power model, it is demonstrated that safety evaluation plays a certain role in promoting the economic growth.(4)Some suggests and countermeasures are presented at last according to the problems existed in the performance management of safety evaluation in China.