A Research On Influence Of Factors And Reduction Strategy Of Anhui Province Carbon Emission Under Low-carbon Economy Mode

With the accelerated process of economic globalization, environmental problems are gradually evolved into a global problem. Huge energy consumption, high pollution industries, especially cross-border transfer of greenhouse gas emissions increasing year by year has attracted wide attention from international academic circles. Global climate change is the most significant environmental problems facing the twenty-first century, the most significant global challenges.Present as an international carbon emissions and incremental are the largest countries, China is facing international pressure increased. Anhui province as an energy source province, economic growth in the rapidly development based on characteristics of the energy needs of coal as the main energy sources, coupled with the concept of industrial structure and consumption of the reasons people in Anhui province's greenhouse gas emissions year by year. The low-carbon economy requires to reduce emissions, for such a contradiction, carbon in Anhui Province and economic development analysis of the relationship between the analyzed factors that affect the carbon emissions for a reasonable strategy for carbon reduction theoretical guidance.The main conclusions are as follows:(1) First, analysis the relationship between carbon emissions and economic in Anhui Province to find the environmental Kuznets curve. The results showed that the environmental Kuznets curve in Anhui Province is a rising trend, as the specific shape of an inverted "U"-type of the left part, that the environmental Kuznets curve in Anhui Province has not reached the theoretical value of the inflection point. That means emissions of carbon in Anhui Province is still show an increasing trend.(2) Kaya identities for greenhouse emissions in Anhui Province decomposition, generally divided into the energy consumption carbon intensity, energy intensity, per capita GDP and the total population. Analysis of the four factors as the total amount of Anhui Province, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and found that the carbon intensity of energy consumption in Anhui Province and the energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions is most closely related, the two indicators for each one percent change, respectively, will lead to carbon dioxide 0.905 change in total emissions in the same direction, and 0.941 percentage points. GDP per capita and total population change of one percentage point each, respectively, total carbon dioxide emissions will cause changes in the same direction, 0.725 and 0.356 percentage points.(3) Then, predict the Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 emissions of greenhouse gases.Static prediction of which is set three different growth rates under the baseline scenario and other factors to predict different growth rates, in which case the set of three reference mainly to the growth rate of the various explanatory variables for a set specifically as optimistic and pessimistic benchmark speed by three. Reflect changes in future energy development as a possible trend should be noted that this forecast is not to provide for future economic development of accurate forecasts and carbon dioxide emissions, but to be able to broadly reflect the future economic growth and development of the underlying factors.The results showed that CO2 emissions in 2020 in Anhui Province under the optimistic scenario is to reach 600 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, the benchmark model under conditions of 9.3 million tons and 12.5 under the pessimistic type situation million tons.Dynamic Prediction by Monte Carlo simulation method for the next decade, emissions of carbon in Anhui Province probability forecast. The main purpose of this method is to break through the limitations of static prediction, forecast the next 10 years in Anhui Province the probability of growth in carbon emissions most likely occur in between 1.6% -2%.(4) Finally, based on the above results, combined with the specific economic development in Anhui Province has put forward policy proposals on energy saving and emission reduction measures, primarily from business, government, markets, and residents of low-carbon economy for the four model to explore the construction, which reduce carbon emissions intensity of enterprises, government tax revenue to build a low carbon economy measures, the market play a fundamental role in the regulation, the residents build a low carbon awareness. China's trade and environment for the harmonious development of some feasible suggestions.