Based On Gray System And Time Series Of Mineral Resources Production Forecast

Prediction of mineral resources is a complex process. In practice, the production for mineral resources by many factors, such as that the energy structure, economic development, income levels, prices, production structure, macroeconomic policies and so on, some of which is to determine the factors, and some uncertainty. Therefore, during the process of forecasting the mineral resources production, we need to take into account the characteristics of the sample data to select the appropriate forecasting model, so that the output of mineral resources prediction more reliable. Production of mineral resources, the practice of Grey System Model prediction and time series analysis is widely used.In this paper, studied the theory of the traditional model and time series analysis model, contrasted analysis by example, and proposed the improvement of the traditional model. Firstly this paper describes the recipient of gray system theory, including the data content of gray prediction, gray, and gray prediction model test. Secondly, introduced the theory of time series analysis, including the white noise time series, autoregressive model, moving average models, autoregressive moving average model. Based on the theories of gray prediction and series analysis, we proposed improved GM model. Using Matlab programming, Calculated the solution of the traditional GM model, ARMA model and the improved GM model. By the model results compared and analyzed three models, the GM model results improved significantly superior to the traditional GM model and ARMA model. Finally, applied improve the prediction model to forecast in Sichuan vanadium minerals, obtained vanadium minerals 2010-2015 forecast in Sichuan, vanadium minerals in Sichuan Province in 2015 will exceed 37,800 tons production.