Empirical Study Of The Fluctuations In Agricultural Commodity Prices And Inflation Relations

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, which has decided the important status of agricultural products in the national economy. The price fluctuation of agricultural products not only affects the income and the development of agriculture, but also the whole price level, then the inflation. Therefore, the study of the relationship between agri-product price and inflation has a certain meaning to resolve the "agriculture, countryside and farmer" problem and becomes guidance for the decision-making of agricultural policy.According to the 18-sector constant input-output tables in 1981, 1983, 1987, 1990, 1992 and 1995 which are already compiled by Li Qiang and Xue Tiandong and 18-sector input-output tables in 1997 and 2000 which has been adjusted by means of flop out method, this paper uses the input-output model to compute the impact of the price fluctuation of agricultural products on the other sectors in different years, then the impact of the price fluctuation of agricultural products on the whole price level can be calculated. So the rule of the price level fluctuation will be studied. Based on the findings, the impact of the whole price in year 2005 and 2010 can be forecasted. Findings suggest that the whole tendency of the impact on the inflation is gradually decreased. One percent increase of the price of the agricultural products in year 2000 causes 0.15 percent increase of the whole price level, which has dropped 60 percent compared to 1981.The forecasted result showed that, the price of agricultural products increase one percent in year 2005 will cause an 0.12 percent increasing in the whole price, while that will dropped to 0.09 percent in 2010.Follow the method above, the structure of this paper is as follows:Chapter one discusses the theoretical and realistic meaning of this paper and summarizes domestic and foreign research about the relationship between agri-product price and inflation. Meanwhile the method and the structure arrangement of the paper are briefly discussed.The second chapter introduces the data source processing and the formulation...