Based On Ahp And Investment Risk Management Study

The investment of enterprise stresses on expected profit, so unavoidably undertake corresponding risk. It is the important guarantee for a successful project to hold opportunities, reduce risk or reduce risk loss. Combining the qualitive research and quantitative research, the paper regards the enterprise management of investment risk as a correlative organic system, and discusses the investment risk enterprise faced to from the three aspects of risk identification, risk analysis and risk response option using analytic hierarchy process.This paper mainly includes the follow three aspects. In risk identification stage, discerning every influence factor of the total risk to offer the foundation for investment risk analysis and risk control. At the risk analysis stage, using AHP to weigh the relatively important intensity of every influence factor of the total risk to establish the foundation for the risk control, and to make investors concentrate energy on those most important risk factors. At risk control stage, using AHP to choose the best respond measure in various alternative schemes.Investment risk can be divided into cash-flow-in risk, cash-flow-out risk, discount rate risk and period risk according to risk source. The influencing factors of cash-flow-in risk include the market competitive degree and change of consumption demand mainly. The influencing factors of cash-flow-out risk include the artificial wages change risk and risk of raw material mainly, as well as workshop equipment rent change risk. The existence of discount rate risk is the result of the inflation risk and risk of interest rate mainly. The factors cause to project period alteration include invest cycle change and technical risk etc. mainly. At the same time, natural calamity, burst accident, policy change risk and currency risk, as well as the factors such as management risk, possibility at the same time produces influence for every factor of NPV. The objective existence of these risks have caused investment risk complex changeful feature.Analytic hierarchy process offered the strong tool for the investment risk analysis and for the investment risk control measure selection. On the foundation of distinguishing fully for investment risk, through establishing the risk hierarchy structure of influencing factor and constructing judge matrix, investor could be aware of the most important factors influencing the investment risk according to the total reorder result. Through establishing the risk response hierarchy structure, investor...