Bullwhip Effect Of Manufacturing Enterprises

In the integration of global economy environment, no powerful corporation can accomplish all of its business by its own. They must manage their supply chain with their upstream and downstream partners. The bullwhip effect that originates from the supply chain management means the demand information fluctuation will amplify from the downstreams to the upstreams. Manufacture factories locate at the original of supply chain, they will be remarkably affected by the bullwhip effect. Meanwhile, manufacture factories cannot easily issue purchase orders to its upstreams from the analysis of downstreams' purchase orders. They must produce the required products in its own. This will be limited by the production capacity. The essential reason of the shortage gaming, delivery delay, customers requirements loss all caused by bullwhip effect is: manufacture factories cannot adjust their production capacity quickly and fail to recognize the customers' demands. Thus, it is important to research the bullwhip effect in manufacture factories.This paper combined theory analysis with the practice research of Chinese Automobile Development. We talk about the wide fluctuation of demand in Chinese Automobile market and its bullwhip effect on automobile manufacture. Then we try to find the demand structure from auto-regression model and search the turning point that can explain the source of bullwhip effect. But the result show that the fluctuation of automobile demand comes more from the competition of different corporations. So we establish internal competition model to analyse the cause-result relation among the automobile industry.The innovation points of this dissertation are as follow: First, we see the problem of bullwhip effect from the manufacture factories' view point, talking about the conflict of production regidity and demand fluctuation. Second, we detect the turning point of the sales time series in Chinese Automobile Market to analyze the cause of the structure change of demand. Third, we add the competition factor to the prevention and control of bullwhip effect, and give us a more full-scale analysis of bullwhip effect.