China's Oil Import Risk Avoidance Measures

Petroleum plays a key role in promoting economic development or realizing national strategy as important industry raw material and strategy supplies, guaranteeing petroleum supply enough or not directly relate to our country politic, economy and military's safety. Along with economy fast development, petroleum demand appeared high speed of increase, and the indentation of local petroleum supply and demand is enlargement year by year, import petroleum is an important means to alleviate supply and demand indentation. In 2004, petroleum consuming of China is already 3.08 hundred million ton, among them import petroleum 1.2 hundred million ton, consumption and import of petroleum were all world second, accordingly petroleum import dependence degree already 39%. However international petroleum market often changes mutably, import petroleum faces a series of risk and many insecurity factors in petroleum import trade.With the recovery of world economy, all countries demand of petroleum quickly increase, on the one hand, a lot of petroleum export country because itself demand of petroleum increase, export ability is descending year by year; On the other hand, controlling petroleum resources, transport passage, and the right of making petroleum price are focuses in all countries fight. However in world petroleum gather region or transport passage, mostly all be placed in every kind of contradiction or conflict region, such as race conflict, religion conflict, territory issue and race split, every kind of dispute or the war usually breaks out. The sources of China petroleum import overly concentrate, passage single, petroleum strategy store not yet establish, and the growth of petroleum futures market is not perfect, species single, petroleum import just be used as an means meeting the emergence of indentation of local petroleum supply and demand, result in this phenomenon, "buy in high price, sale in low price". In addition to the impact to international petroleum market, of China petroleum import, the threaten theory of China petroleum be widely went round in overseas. Thesafety of our country petroleum import is suffering the unprecedented challenge. Therefore, how to right evaluating the risk of China petroleum import, to evade risk, and to insure our country petroleum import trade safety, is that we must face important theories and pay attention to the problem of practice.International environment of our country petroleum import was analyzed from status of world petroleum resources, international petroleum market environment, geopolitical aspect, and situation of petroleum transportation. The supply and demand of globe petroleum is basic equilibrium, but international oil price often change frequently and sharply, distributing of petroleum resources and consuming are obvious unbalance, the contradiction of partial petroleum supply and demand stands out, because of geopolitical complicacy, petroleum supply interruption is still possible. As far as present condition and future of our country petroleum import be concerned, the indentation of petroleum supply and demand is year by year enlargement, The sources of China petroleum import overly concentrate, passage single, besides the dispute of south china sea and Taiwanese problem, the risk of our country petroleum import have not already allowed to be neglected. On the basic of systematically analyzing risk factors to influence our country petroleum import, certain appraisal indexes are selected form each risk factor to set up risk appraisal system, make use of method of fuzzy mathematics to evaluate our country petroleum import risk. Finally, important countermeasures to evade risk were discussed.