Research On Establishing Credit Rating Model Of Comprehensive Oil And Gas Industry Based On Analytic Hierarchy Process

Since the financial crisis, for credit default events heralded the heightened awareness of credit risk, credit rating modelswas constantly improved, both in qualitatively and in quantitatively, by financial institutions. While the credit rating industry in China stays at the initial stage which compared to their global peers, such as Moody’s, S&P and Fitch. The technology gap in credit rating has limited the development of capital markets.Thus it is necessary and urgent for us to enhance our credit rating models and build an effective credit rating system.In last two years. As the United States monetary policy shift, the global credit have suffered from contraction. In addition, the tight credit conditionscurb the fragile economy growth of the world,which led the global commodities enteredto a bear market. Especially, the suddenly drop of the oil pricewhich started form the second half year of 2014,urged investors in the bond market into noticing the deterioration of credit risk in integrated oil and gas industry.Thus, through the analyzingon credit risk profile of integrated oil and gas industry, generating mechanism of credit risk andmonitoring indicates to the change of credit risk, the writer tend to establish an effective model to reveal the substantial of industry credit profile. In the meantime, Analytic Hierarchy Process, which is a mathematic method for decision-making, has been employed to weight the ratios in the model. At the end, the model applied to practice, which indicated the responding credit profile of two companies in the industry, and showed a universal validity.The paper, setting up on the base of previous studies, tried to add some innovative researches, for example(1)in the past studies, factors like the country risk,credit environment risk and industry risk factors has been neglected and the credit model was established on corporate perspective.Thus, the form credit rating model have limited for the effectiveness to inspect the credit risk. By focusing on the characteristics of the integrated oil and gascorporates,the paper detected more risk profile form sovereign and industry perspective, which is the innovation point in my research. (2) Over the past year,the case of the empirical study was domestic companies as research sample;this paper switchesthe main target of the empirical analysis to the corporates who have issued bonds in global bond market as.