Research On Credit Risk Of Microcredit In Rural Commercial Bank Of China

On January 27,2016,the central file no.1 "Several opinions about the implementation of the development of new ideas to speed up agricultural modernization and to achieve the comprehensive well-off" has been released. Our government has been focus on “Three Rural” issues for 13 consecutive years. “Scorn thrift, is the foundation of the people”, this issue is the key to build a well-off society in an all-round way. Rural development depends on the economy, especially the effective support of rural finance. As an efficient tool to help countryside families, rural micro-finance has been widely used by rural commercial bank, but recently, in its rising the non-performing loans has been caused the general concern of the community. The high default rate of micro-finance is not only closely related with its own characteristics, but also reflects the lack of rural commercial bank credit risk management.In view of this, my thesis first review the basic concept and current situation of the development of rural commercial bank from the macro level, and analysis the cause of its characteristic of facing risk of default from the characteristics of Chinese farmers’ economic behaviors and types of demand and borrowing behaviors. Then find out the current problems of rural commercial bank credit risk management in China.Then, based on the survey data from micro-finance of ‘A’ rural commercial bank, select ten indicators from farmers’ basic information and credit characters, by use of Excel data table to carry out the descriptive statistics analysis, and on the basis of prediction judgment, use the logistic regression model to analyze the influence factors of the farmer credit default risk, and test the model. The analysis result shows that five variables of ED(Education Degree), FI(Family Income), IC(Industry Categories), LP(Loan Payment) and LT(Loan Time) are main factors that affect PD(Probability of Default) of micro-credit of ‘A’ rural commercial bank. Finally, in view of the qualitative research and combined with the empirical analysis results, respectively from diversified farmers revenue channels; The innovation of credit product; Optimization of credit business process; Establish a perfect rural credit rating system; Strengthening personnel training and improve the external credit environment to improve the management level of rural micro-finance credit risk of rural commercial bank in our country.