Fujian Provincial Composition Of The Population Dynamic Simulation And Analysis

The ageing of population, the gender imbalance of the total population, how to obtain employment in face of the change of work force plus the unsuitable population ratio of urban and rural are all the main problems which lie in the system of Chinese population now, these problems are all in connection with population structure. Many problems also lie in population structure of Fujian province in recent years, it is necessary to forecast population structure of Fujian province in the future and to study the progress of population structure.The thought and theory about population have already developed systematically in abroad and China, the theory of population structure has also come into being an elementary system, so there is an academic base for the research on forecast about population structure. According to Chinese facts, it is necessary to think about the policy of family planning when the research is being done. There are many ways and means to forecast population of which System Dynamics is the one, System Dynamics has many advantages of solving the problem on complex system. Using System Dynamics, an emulational model about population structure of Fujian province is constructed by analyzing the population actualities and the system of population structure. The model covers the population structure of age and sex and industry and education and town to countryside. Running the model by Vensim software, results are obtained.According to the results, some conclusions are drawn, in the future few years, the population of Fujian province will keep up increasing slowly, in 2010 it will be 36.08 million, the proportion of juvenile and children will decline gradually, in 2010 it will fall below 17%, the proportion of the elderly will rise continually, in 2010 it will be 10.47%, the proportion of being supported population will remain below 0.4 a low level in the period of forecast, the proportion between male and female is unsuitable obviously in younger population, in 2010 it will be 121.85, the population structure of education will be optimized constantly, the population structure of industry is transforming from the type of development to modern type, the population structure of town to countryside will be upgraded.Emulational system model has a good name "Strategical Laboratory", how to regulate the system by altering the parameters of policies is presented in the fifth part of this paper. Couple of suggestions is raised to optimize the population structure of Fujian province in the last.