Queue Elements Of Law And Zhejiang Population Forecast

As an important aspect of demology, population forecasts is significantly effect on society and economy. Cohort-component method is widely used in actual population forecasts, which is base on population component and demology principle. But cohort-component method has own limitations. Because there is no routine method which can apply mechanically, survival rate, fertility rate, net migration rate in the future is difficult forecasted.The paper is divided into three sector: in the first sector, base on cohort-component method and via quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis to matter of fact, the paper imports several variable: accelerating function of survival rate, correct children women ratio, proportion of infants, and establish correct cohort-component method. In the second sector, base on several hypothesis, Zhejiang Province population forecasts are made by correct cohort-component method, and population composing are presented in the future. In the third sector, base on results of Zhejiang Province population forecasts, the paper discusses change trend of mainly population index in the 21 century, and analyzes how population trend effects development of society and economy.The conclusion of the paper: compared to cohort-component method, it is easy to forecast basic data with correct cohort-component method. And the results of forecasts and analysis indicates that it is necessary to execute family planning in the Zhejiang Province.