| My study is to provide a theoretical basis on formulating the policy to qualify the Olympic Games. By means of analysis and research on Olympic qualification methods adopted by some of the advanced countries in swimming,and of seeking for the characteristic and the relevant elements that may affecting the qualification and also for those restricting conditions,the aim of my study is to fill up the gaps in the field of Olympic Qualification Policy and to find out the suitable way for swimming qualification in our country. Taking those swimmers who participated in the Olympic Games as the objects of my study from USA,Australia,Germany,Russia,Japan,China and some other countries,all together 12 countries,I collected and studied all the documents concerning Qualification Methods adopted by the world advanced countries,and competitions results of their Olympic Trails,Olympic Games and the competitions of the previous three years on internet. By processing these data and getting mathematical statistics,and to calculate relevant element of results of Olympic Trails,Olympic Games and the competitions of previous three years,to analyze the changing trend in the cycle of four years and also the weighted-average of results of Olympic Trails,Olympic Games and the competitions of the previous year,then to reexamine the collected original data and to calculate the data quota for the second time and to test the calculating results,on the basis of all those data,by comparing and analyzing the qualification methods adopted by the world advanced countries and summarizing the performances of their swimmers in Olympic Games,I try to find out the key of their success and failure. Considering the necessity of formulating a new Olympic Qualification Policy,its effecting elements,the view of international and domestic experts and the date of Olympic Trails,I worked out a investigating forms which have been distributed to some 101 coaches,team leaders and judges from 29 provinces and autonomous regions and analyzed their replies. This analysis shows that:although the one-time trail can reflect the principle of " open condition,fair competition,fair (impartial ) selection",it may lead the competition too tough and the swimmers' peak time coming earlier which is not good for swimmers to give their full performances in Olympic Games. And it may also caused that some of elite swimmers be out of the Olympic team by some unforeseen reasons. Calculating the results of the swimmers of world advanced countries in the previous three Olympic Games and their Olympic Trails,I found that the results of the most of the top three swimmers in Olympics are better than their Olympic Trails,and this percentage is much higher than other swimmers which also indicates that swimmers must swim better than their Olympic trails in order to get a medal in Olympic Games. Also by calculating the results changing of Olympic Champions of the previous three Olympic Games in the cycle of four years,I found that their best resultsall appeared in Olympic Games,the result of their Olympic Trails are worse not only than that in the Olympic Games but also than that of the best results in the previous year. Meanwhile,I also found that the swimmers' second peak is in the World Swimming Championships. The results of three years prior to the Olympic Games are the lowest. By analyzing the results changing regularity of the previous three Olympic Games in the cycle of four years and the performances of our swimmers in Olympic Games,I found that it becomes necessary to move up to an earlier date of our Olympic Trails in order to ease the pressure which is also essential for swimmers to create best results in Olympic Games. On the basis of the studies of those relevant elements and its deep reasons of those restricting Olympic Qualification Policy,in order to improve the scientific level of the Qualification Policy,I,hereby,would like to make the following suggestion on the formulation of the Olympic Qualification Policy:the Olympic Qualification Policy must take the " o... |